The long-debated four-year Bitcoin cycle — historically tied to halving events — is facing fresh skepticism as institutional adoption reshapes the crypto market.
Author and investor Jason Williams points to nearly 1 million BTC held by the top 100 treasury companies as proof the cycle is “over.” Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan echoed the sentiment, predicting positive returns in 2026 and declaring the traditional pattern broken.
Historically, Bitcoin peaked in the year after halvings — 2013, 2017, 2021 — with 2025 expected to follow suit. But voices like Pierre Rochard argue halvings are now “immaterial” as most BTC is already mined, with demand driven by retail, ETFs, and corporate treasuries.
Others disagree. Analyst CRYPTO₿IRB insists ETFs actually strengthen the cycle due to correlations with traditional finance’s four-year political rhythm, while Xapo Bank’s CEO warns the cyclical nature is “still intact.”
For now, the debate continues: is the four-year playbook obsolete, or just evolving?
