Last weekend, Bitcoin surged rapidly, directly rising to $120,000, with an astonishing daily increase. However, whether it can stabilize in the short term requires further observation. Fortunately, from the chip structure, BTC has returned to a safe zone with $117,000 as support, turning the $112,000-$116,000 trading zone into a defensive area.
From the extreme deviation pricing range of MVRV, BTC is currently operating between the yellow line (lower bound) and the orange line (upper bound). Support at the lower bound suggests potential resistance at the upper bound. The current price corresponding to the orange line is $125,000; if it can break through and stabilize, the second target will be the red line area of about $137,000. Conversely, if it faces resistance, there is a possibility of retracing to the yellow line and testing the $117,000 support again.
ETH has strong absorption capacity, with impressive on-chain data.
It is worth noting that during the peak of ETH at $4,200 yesterday, the on-chain profit realization reached $1 billion. This is the ninth day since February 2024 that the realized profit has exceeded $1 billion, showing that the current market's ability to absorb selling pressure should not be underestimated.
Breaking down these profit chips:
Profit margin <20%: Short-term chips, frequent trading, can be ignored.
Profit margin 60-100%: Key focus, average profit of about 80%, cost area between $2,300-$2,500, mostly built during ETH's fluctuations in May-July, and realized gains when breaking through the $4,000 mark.
ETH accumulated a large amount of chips in the $2,500-$2,800 range. The price was able to break through quickly at that time because these chips were not sold, locking in liquidity. Now, some have cashed out, but there are still about 2.6 million ETH around the $2,500 cost area and about 2.9 million ETH in the $2,700 range. The market's absorption capacity will be tested going forward.
Earlier long-term chips had two significant sell-offs on July 25 and July 31, with daily profits exceeding $600 million, selling prices mostly around $3,700, and costs about $1,200.
Altcoins and narrative switching
ETH's rise has caused BTC's market share to fall below the trend line, which may signal the arrival of altcoin season. The main line remains 'whoever has an ETF will be favored.'
Ethereum-based altcoins and meme tokens are expected to flow back to the Ethereum chain.
Tru (RWA concept): Low market cap, with acceleration potential.
odindog: Has started, the pool has sufficient liquidity, and the leading odinpepe has a market cap of over $120 million. In the early hours, a major player tested the market by selling 15 BTC, causing the price to drop 80%, but then recovered to the original price, suspected to test the market's pressure ability. It is estimated that just over 20 BTC can break through, so be cautious when chasing highs in the short term.
XRP observation
XRP has two major core narratives: cross-border payments and RWA. After resolving its lawsuit with the SEC, Ripple can fully advance its strategic layout. In the short term, there are two major points of interest—application for a U.S. banking license and XRP ETF approval, which will be clarified by October at the latest. Additionally, a Japanese consortium has applied for BTC & XRP ETFs, both of which are hard-core positives.
Both BTC and ETH surged, with strong on-chain capital absorption, signaling the beginning of altcoin season. In the short term, focus on BTC's resistance at $125K and ETH's absorption situation in the $4,000-$4,200 range, as capital may continue to tilt towards Ethereum and RWA concepts.
