Nvidia and AMD agree to pay 15% of revenue from AI chip sales in China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses, setting a precedent for a 'chip tax' that shakes the global supply chain and national security balance. (Background: In the fierce competition for AI talent, Sam Altman says tech giants are betting on the chosen ones to achieve AGI breakthroughs.) (Supplementary Background: Grok 4 is now available for free use, and Musk's xAI is in direct competition with GPT-5.) In the context of escalating U.S.-China tech tensions, Nvidia and AMD unexpectedly agreed today (11) to pay 15% of the revenue from sales of their H20 and MI308 AI chips in the Chinese market to the U.S. government in exchange for long-awaited export licenses. This transaction, referred to by the market as the 'chip tax,' pulls Washington, Silicon Valley, and Beijing into a new equation: Can fiscal revenue, technology control, and market survival coexist? Overview of the transaction: 15% 'chip tax' sets a precedent. Over the past two years, the U.S. has intensified export controls on advanced chips to China, forcing Nvidia and AMD to launch downgraded versions H20 and MI308 specifically for the Chinese market. Despite this, the two chips were once stuck in the licensing process this year, halting shipments. The latest agreement finally unlocks inventory: the two companies will directly transfer 15% of the gross revenue from each Chinese order to Washington, with an estimated monthly amount of about 1 billion dollars. This model differs from traditional tariffs and is not a one-time fine; rather, it embeds 'pay tax upon sale' into long-term operations, creating an unprecedented template. Government, enterprises, finance: A triangular table of interest balance. For Washington, this money provides immediate cash flow for the continuously expanding fiscal deficit, and it can still maintain technical constraints on the Chinese AI industry without completely cutting off supply. The U.S. Department of Commerce began issuing new licenses last week, indicating that the White House has accepted a compromise of 'money for market.' Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang previously warned that a complete blockade would only accelerate China's self-research efforts; he has now temporarily preserved about 13% of revenue from China; AMD also avoids losing up to 24% of its business in China. Morgan Stanley estimates that after the restrictions are lifted, AMD's related revenue could rebound to between 3 billion to 5 billion dollars in 2025, while Bernstein expects Nvidia's H20 sales in China next year could reach 23 billion dollars. Although profits are reduced by 15%, 'some profit' is better than 'zero sales,' and both companies have chosen to minimize damage. However, there are still doubts within Washington. Jacob Feldgoise, a researcher at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology in Washington, warns: 'This expedient could weaken the national security foundation of U.S. export controls and may lead to a decline in allies' trust in U.S. policies.' In other words, packaging national security and cash flow together for sale may shake the alliance relationships originally built on security logic. The Chinese market and domestic competitors: Passive protection or accelerated catch-up. From Beijing's perspective, this 'tax' not only increases procurement costs but also highlights the risks of external dependency. A CCTV-related account, 'Yuyuantan Tian,' questioned the safety and performance issues of H20, which is interpreted as pressure in negotiations. In fact, local alternatives have rapidly emerged: Huawei's Ascend series is estimated to currently account for 20% to 30% of domestic AI demand. When Nvidia and AMD are forced to hand over 15% of their revenue, it is equivalent to erecting a 'passive protection umbrella' for Chinese manufacturers, narrowing the price gap and encouraging the adoption of domestic chips. In the long term, whether U.S. companies will continue to invest in customized 'downgraded versions' or simply shift their new research and development focus to other markets will be key points to observe. A new template for the tech cold war: Export controls linked with fiscal revenue. The agreement between Nvidia and AMD ties export restrictions, geopolitics, and direct fiscal revenue together for the first time in one contract, shaping a new normal of 'incomplete decoupling.' If this model is replicated in sensitive areas such as quantum computing and biotechnology, the global supply chain will face more fragmentation and reallocation. For enterprises, research and development routes are pulled by policy dialectics; for governments, how to switch weights between security, industry, and finance will test governance wisdom. In the short term, Washington gains cash, Nvidia and AMD maintain their channels, and Beijing gets time to cultivate self-sufficiency. It appears to be a win-win-win situation, but due to trust gaps and technological competition, long-term variables remain numerous. The 'chip tax' is just the beginning. At the crossroads of intense global power and capital shifts, it is likely that the next chip will soon fall into someone else's hands.

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