ChainCatcher message, a survey shows that European Central Bank officials will wait until December to implement the next rate cut, which is likely to be the last step in the current rate-cutting cycle. Compared to the July survey, economists have postponed expectations for the next rate cut by three months.
They believe that by then, deposit rates will be lowered to 1.75% and will be maintained at that level for 9 to 10 months, after which, with demand rebounding, the European Central Bank will be forced to reverse its policy direction. Waiting until the last decision in 2025 to take action will give the ECB policymakers more time to assess the impacts of the trade turmoil triggered by U.S. President Trump.
By December, policymakers will have grasped the economic performance data for the third quarter, which will more clearly reflect the economy's underlying momentum after the distortion effects caused by companies acting ahead of U.S. tariff increases at the beginning of the year fade. The new forecast report will also give them their first insights into growth and inflation trends for 2028. (Jinshi)