GM! ☕️$ETH Back to 4,000, moving towards the historical high. Are you all happy E-family members recently? Presenting this issue's [#Bail Monday Report], let's take a look at the key points worth noting this week, and feel free to leave comments for discussion!

[Conclusion first]

  1. This Tuesday, the U.S. CPI data will be released. The current market expectation is for the first rate cut to begin in September, with the forecast for 2025 adjusted from two rate cuts to three.

  2. $BTC The price has returned to the range of $116,000 to $120,000, and it may be driven by futures to liquidate a large amount of short liquidity near $120,000 in the short term.

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[Detailed content starts here]

  • This Tuesday (8/12), the United States will announce CPI data. This time, there should not be an unusual situation of significant adjustments like the previous non-farm data. Currently, the market expects the first rate cut to occur in September, with the expectation for 2025 adjusted from two rate cuts to three. Overall, the trend is favorable for the risk market.

  • Sosovalue data shows that the current Fear and Greed Index remains slightly in the greed zone. The market capitalization of stablecoins continues to grow steadily, and ETF fund inflows are beginning to stabilize. Options volatility has slightly increased; the ∆25 Skew data continues to show a slight bullish sentiment, and the green leaf long leveraged positions have slowed down as prices recover.

  • $BTC price bottomed at $112,000 last week and has returned to the range of $116,000 to $120,000. From the liquidation map, last week, short-term longs have already been liquidated, and the price is now approaching a large amount of short liquidity near $120,000. As the trend of ETF inflows begins to stabilize, the price is currently dominated by futures, so it is expected that the large shorts at $120,000 will be liquidated.