August 11 - August 15: Overview of Major Macro Events in Japan
In this week's macro events, the 90-day pause in US-China trade has little impact on the market, as it was expected. However, if the pause is not extended, the negative effects could become quite apparent.
On inflation, we need to look at three points: overall CPI, supply-side PPI, and demand-side retail data. A comprehensive assessment of tariffs and their impact on inflation is necessary. If inflation rebounds or remains sticky, combined with a significant decline in consumption like the Q2 GDP, the risk of stagflation may arise. Don't expect too much good news from the Russia-Ukraine summit, but a friendly bilateral discussion can still be seen as a positive signal.
Additionally, Circle will release its first earnings report post-IPO this week. Previously, the stock price dropped significantly, and the bubble is slowly being deflated. The outcome of this earnings report will directly determine whether the stock price can rebound. There are also three Federal Reserve governors scheduled to speak, each on different topics. The recent frequency of their speeches indicates that the Fed is quite concerned about the economy and the impact of tariffs, and their remarks are mainly aimed at stabilizing the market. Moreover, Trump is looking to intervene with the Fed; by observing these governors' speeches, we can also speculate on who might take sides, such as Waller and Bowman.
I am preparing for a big move in the upcoming market; those who believe need not say much, and those who recognize it can come directly.
