On August 11, the latest data released by cryptocurrency analysis firm Curated Crypt revealed a phenomenon worthy of attention for all Bitcoin holders: The purchasing volume of small and medium wallet holders has exceeded the current daily output level of miners, while the cumulative amount of large wallets such as institutions and enterprises has significantly surpassed miner extraction over the past two years. This data not only confirms the surge in market demand but also highlights that Bitcoin's on-chain scarcity is entering a new dimension.

Supply-demand balance tilting: Buying pressure fully suppresses output

The network mechanism of Bitcoin determines its annual production of about 328,500 coins (6.25 coins produced every 10 minutes, halving every four years). Currently, the daily new supply stabilizes around 900 coins. However, on-chain data monitoring by Curated Crypt shows:


  • In the past 30 days, retail and small to medium investors with address balances between 0.1 and 10 coins have averaged a net buying volume of 1,100 coins per day, exceeding miner daily output by 22%.

  • Institutions and whale accounts with over 1,000 coins in address balances have net bought a total of 1.2 million coins in the past two years, which is 1.8 times the total production of miners during the same period (about 650,000 coins).


This reversal in supply-demand relations is not coincidental. Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024, institutional daily buying peaks have reached 50,000 coins, directly causing exchange Bitcoin balances to drop from 3 million coins in 2020 to the current 2.1 million coins, a historic low. On the retail side, as compliant trading channels have become more widespread, the number of small and medium wallets has grown by 40% over the past year, further diverting new output.

Scarcity Transmission: From On-chain Data to Market Pricing

The scarcity of Bitcoin has never been simply about the 'total of 21 million coins', but is reflected in the supply-demand game in the circulation phase. The current market presents three significant characteristics:


  1. Miner selling pressure has weakened: In the past three months, the average daily selling volume of miners has dropped from 500 coins to 200 coins, and some mining companies have started moving over 50% of their output to cold wallets for long-term holding, reflecting optimistic expectations for the future market.

  2. Over-the-counter premiums are climbing: The premium rate of Grayscale GBTC has rebounded from -15% at the beginning of the year to +3%, indicating that the over-the-counter market demand for spot has exceeded secondary market supply.

  3. The proportion of long-term holders is increasing: The share of Bitcoin held for over 1 year has reached 65%, up 10 percentage points from 2023, indicating a noticeable accumulation effect.


This structural change is reshaping the market pricing logic. Traditionally, Bitcoin prices are highly correlated with miner production costs, but now the continuous influx of institutional funds has made 'liquidity premium' replace 'cost pricing' as the dominant factor—just like the price of gold is driven not only by mining costs but also by central bank reserve demand.

Market Impact: Investment Insights under the Scarcity Cycle

For investors, the intensifying supply-demand imbalance signifies two core changes:


  • Short-term Volatility Narrowing: When buying pressure consistently suppresses selling pressure, Bitcoin's retracement is often limited. In the past six months, there were only 2 instances of a single retracement exceeding 10%, far less than the 8 instances in 2023.

  • Long-term Trend Strengthening: On-chain data shows that in each bull market, the duration of 'demand exceeding supply' averages 14 months, while the current cycle has just begun 6 months ago, indicating that the scarcity dividend may not have been fully released.


However, it is important to be cautious, as supply-demand imbalance is not a 'get out of jail free card' for prices only going up. Historical experience shows that when institutional net buying drops below 50% of miner output in a single day (as in November 2021), it often signals the arrival of a short-term top. Therefore, tracking the daily buying volume against output can serve as an important indicator of market heat.
Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'miner-dominated supply' to a 'investor-dominated demand' phase. When retail and institutional buying power consistently surpasses the network's natural output, scarcity will no longer be an abstract concept but will translate into tangible price support. For holders, understanding the underlying logic of this supply-demand game is more important than guessing short-term price points.

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