#BTC Thinking. The most important thing now is to guess where the top is.
BTC, 130,000 or 150,000. Both are possible.
Correspondingly.
ETH rising another 1000 points is also possible.
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It's currently August, and September is not far away. The sentiment for interest rate cuts in September is particularly strong now.
I personally think there should be an interest rate cut. Powell should give Trump a little face and the interest rate cut card a little face now.
. This is also the main reason for the current rise.
Alright. Where is the peak, if it rises, where might it rise to?
Currently looking at: ETF net inflow is expanding (extremely bullish, but after a large volume, it may not keep up later, with a small retracement).
Greed-fear index: 68 (there's still a little space to the extreme value.)
The number of long-short ratio: 1 (down a bit from yesterday, indicating that many retail investors couldn't hold back from shorting and got trapped. This data is still very favorable for the bulls, the value is bullish.)
However, the large holder long-short ratio is relatively high, close to the extreme value, and the subsequent 130,000 may pull back.
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Let's see again. Liquidity.
Currently rising again, from the chart we can see, the bulls are mainly concentrated in the 125,000~130,000 range, which means we can pay attention to this range for further increases.
(Actually, this strategy has been analyzed like this since July, and has been updated in real-time with the trading script. At that time, it was said to pull back to 111800 to eat a wave of large liquidity and then surge to 130,000.)
Originally quite successful. It reached 111,800, but one misjudgment, misled by the market, thinking it would drop a little more, ended up losing two short positions.
This lesson taught me not to easily change my trading system's strategy. Even if it really continued to drop, I should have taken more losses and continued to enter the market below, instead of going against the trading system and shorting.
Continue speaking
Going up is 150,000. Then it jumped up.
That is to say, the probability is high that the top of this bull market may be at 135,000, ideally it could reach 155,000.
Then the whole market pulled back. Remember, a pullback does not mean the end of the bull market, but is an active behavior of institutions to absorb positions downward.
Because there are no chips above to eat. Anyone who has studied order flow understands.
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Looking at the lines, bullish, very strong, currently can observe the three buys just starting at the 4-hour level.
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Intraday view, will there be a pullback at the previous high around 125,000 to give an entry opportunity?
That is to say, 125,000.
If it can't go up, it can have a small pullback.
Long is staying.
If you don't look for an entry, just pay attention to the altcoin market with Doug, it's like picking up money every day. As long as you are not greedy and don't go all in. Enter and exit decisively. Make money easily.
