What Did Musk Say?
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, recently sounded the alarm on X (formerly Twitter):
“Japan will lose almost a million people this year.”
He was referring to the country’s accelerating population decline in 2025 — a crisis decades in the making. Musk clarified that AI didn’t cause this collapse, but argued that AI could be a critical tool in managing its fallout.
Why Japan’s Population Is Shrinking
1️⃣ Births vs. Deaths: A Record Gap
2024 births: ~720,988 — the lowest since records began in 1899.
Deaths: ~1.6 million.
Net loss: Nearly 900,000 people in just one year — the steepest decline since post-war data collection began.
2️⃣ An Aging Nation
~30% of citizens are 65+ years old.
The working-age population (15–64) makes up just under 60%, creating heavy pressure on healthcare, pensions, and social services.
3️⃣ Structural & Cultural Challenges
Population decline for 13–16 consecutive years (depending on inclusion of foreign residents).
Fertility rate: 1.20 children per woman — far below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Rising living costs, economic insecurity, and shifting social norms discourage marriage and childbearing.
Government Response — Limited Impact So Far
Japan has rolled out:
Free childcare programs
Expanded maternity support
Four-day workweek trials
Matchmaking AI initiatives
Yet these efforts haven’t reversed the trend.
Can AI Save the Day?
Musk believes AI could ease the demographic crisis by:
Boosting productivity
Automating healthcare
Supporting elderly care
But he warns that technology alone can’t undo decades of population decline without bold policy reforms — such as immigration adjustments, stronger family incentives, and cultural shifts.
The Bigger Picture
Japan isn’t alone. Nations like South Korea and Italy face similar fertility and aging issues. Japan may serve both as a warning and a test case for tackling demographic collapse worldwide.
Summary:
2024 marked Japan’s largest modern-era population drop — nearly 1 million fewer people. Without decisive changes, this decline could reshape its economy, society, and global standing. AI offers hope, but only in tandem with deep structural reforms.