Bitcoin is trading near $113.5K, where RSI signals indicate either a pullback to $95K or a rebound towards $119K.
The weekly relative strength index below the 14-period simple moving average has historically preceded corrections of 20-30% for BTC, raising caution signals.
Bullish divergence indicates weak selling pressure, but confirmation from volume and key closes is still needed.
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Bitcoin is at a crossroads.. The relative strength index hints at a pullback to $95,000
The market is currently in a sensitive phase, with price levels around $112,600 and signals from the relative strength index creating two clear scenarios.
One is a "profit-taking" move that pulls the price to the $95,000 area if technical selling pressure increases and historical patterns repeat (which remains unconfirmed). The second is a "bullish rebound" towards the $119,000 area if the current bottom holds and a bullish divergence is confirmed.
Technical signals create a divergence in short-term market sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces two opposing scenarios shaped by momentum indicators, with the relative strength index (RSI) centered across multiple time frames. According to analyst Ali, in the last two instances, the weekly RSI fell below the 14-period moving average. As a result, Bitcoin corrected between 20% and 30%.
In a previous analysis, Arthur Hayes predicted a sharp correction in the cryptocurrency market. He anticipated Bitcoin reaching $100,000 and Ethereum reaching $3,000.
Continuing to monitor the relative strength index, on the daily chart, analyst Psycodelic noted that the RSI is now at a level similar to the previous bottom around ~$98,000 and close to the bottom seen at ~$76,000. This suggests that short-term selling pressure has weakened, and the current area may be an accumulation point.
From another perspective, analyst Caleb Franzen pointed out that Bitcoin has broken below the bottoms defined by a bullish divergence in the relative strength index. When the price makes lower lows but the RSI does not follow (bullish divergence), it signals weakening bearish momentum. Conversely, a bearish divergence occurs when the price rises but the RSI falls, warning of a potential bearish reversal.
Given this setup, Caleb believes the movement could pave the way for a bounce towards $119,000. Meanwhile, this level becomes a critical threshold; breaking it downwards would invalidate the bullish scenario.