Don't be too fomo, the US economy is quite unstable.

The US job market is sending warning signals.

Non-farm payroll growth slowed to +0.97% year-over-year in July, the weakest increase since 2020.

This is the third consecutive month of growth near +1% compared to the same month last year.

Meanwhile, the average 3-month payroll change has dropped to +35,000, the lowest since June 2020.

Aside from 2020, this is the weakest labor market in the past 15 years.

In previous business cycles, such a slowdown in growth has often preceded a recession.