According to Merlijn The Trader, a market analyst, Bitcoin recently recorded a golden cross on the weekly chart, a pattern he describes as "the signal that never fails." He points out that the previous golden crosses in 2016, 2017, and 2020 were accompanied by increases of 139%, 2200%, and 1190%, respectively. According to him, the same setup is brewing in 2025 with the same structure and traction.
This historical continuity has led him to indicate that the signal could once again serve as rocket fuel. Therefore, the long-term Bitcoin price forecast has become increasingly optimistic as this pattern reappears.
On-chain metrics also add more weight to the bullish narrative, with the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio reaching a new high of 154. This metric shows that Bitcoin is becoming scarcer and is generally a sign of strong demand cycles.
"At the same time, the Z-score of the MVRV, at 2.667, is still not overheated, indicating it has growth potential without presenting maximum market risk. These conditions are common during the early stages of expansion."
Therefore, the on-chain fundamentals support a positive long-term outlook. Along with macroeconomic and technical indicators, Bitcoin's current position indicates the possible convergence of another significant rally.
The nomination of Stephen Miran, a recognized advocate for Bitcoin, to the Federal Reserve Board boosted sentiment in favor of cryptocurrencies. Miran's position favors rate cuts and the use of digital assets, which aligns with investors' expectations of a more cryptocurrency-friendly political environment.
In the past, more flexible monetary conditions have benefited Bitcoin and other risk assets, especially at the beginning of a bullish cycle. This nomination adds to the existing bullish structure, providing possible macroeconomic support for Bitcoin's direction.
Thus, policy changes could act as a driving factor in the fourth quarter. Traders see it as a solid complement to the technical momentum.
