Everyone can take a look at Sister Bei's week 16 review, where she clearly stated to go all-in at Ethereum 3500 to bottom-fish. Whether the three-wave rise has ended and we are about to enter the fourth wave depends on whether Ethereum can break through the new high and lead altcoins to continue the sprint! Last weekend, Ethereum experienced a false breakdown; after breaking through several important support levels, it made a V-shaped reversal this week, leveraging good news and short liquidity, breaking through the 4200 USD mark! This was a week later than Sister Bei's prediction; we can only say that the main force is too cunning in washing the盘. Fortunately, I wasn't fooled into getting off the bus and didn't short!
From a technical analysis perspective, August indeed needs some adjustments, and it hasn't adjusted properly; however, Trump and Ethereum won't allow it! Maybe Trump has also built a good position in Ethereum, directly releasing good news to push it up! With the new policy driving it, the US stock market has emerged from last week's downward mire, continuing to drive up cryptocurrency prices. Trump's friendliness towards crypto, allowing pensions to enter the market and issuing executive orders punishing banks that discriminate against cryptocurrency companies, has further propelled the crypto market's rise.
The main driving force behind this wave of Ethereum's rise is still the large-scale buying by spot ETFs and traditional institutions, especially since the recent inflows of spot ETFs into Ethereum have matched those of Bitcoin, with trading volumes also rising quickly. Previously, the best was only about 30% of Bitcoin's spot ETF trading volume. Therefore, we should closely monitor the ongoing buying situation of these traditional institutions and spot ETFs in US-listed companies.
Ethereum is on the verge of reenacting Bitcoin's explosive rise. From Wall Street 'fortune teller' to Ethereum MicroStrategy creator, Tom Lee's Bitmine has held 833,000 Ethereum in less than a month since its establishment, accounting for nearly 1% of the total supply, becoming the world's largest publicly listed Ethereum treasury company. Bitmine's goal is to match MicroStrategy, holding 5% of the total Ethereum supply. Additionally, there is SBET; the capital and shareholders behind these two companies are roughly the same.
Ethereum has broken through the weekly strong resistance at 4100 USD, where the long and short battle is still very fierce. In the previous three waves, Bitcoin continuously set historical highs but did not drive the Ethereum price to break through here. Therefore, we should focus on whether it can stabilize here; as long as it doesn't form a false breakout, everything will be fine. If it can stabilize for one to two weeks, then the trend will undergo essential changes.
The actions taken in the past one to two weeks will also determine whether mainstream altcoins can continue to rotate and recover. Currently, there is a positive momentum, but the market sentiment for altcoins is still not fomo and even somewhat hesitant. If there can be sustained rotation to recover and quickly move away from the bottom area, then even if we see a bottoming adjustment again this month, the bottom will continually rise, which is the best scenario, and everyone will be more confident to go all-in.
The current mainstream altcoin market is just like the US stock market, with very few opportunities for small and mid-cap stocks to surge, as funds are concentrated in a few leading stocks. This round of the bull market is not driven by funds within the crypto market but by spot ETFs and traditional institutions. After these funds make a profit, they will not enter altcoins, so a season for altcoins like the previous bull market will not happen again. Looking at the current altcoin prices, we can see that after experiencing three waves of market movements, Bitcoin continues to set new historical highs, but the price peaks of altcoins are getting lower each time.
The secondary market is severely differentiated; the mainstream altcoins that can continuously break new highs are those with concentrated funding consensus. Therefore, only a partial altcoin season will occur, as the market's liquidity is insufficient, and altcoins rely entirely on the liquidity spillover effect to rise. Currently, the funds within the circle cannot support the arrival of a comprehensive altcoin season, and the rotation in the altcoin sector will be faster, with quick comings and goings, making it difficult to maintain prolonged upward trends.
This is also the underlying logic behind Sister Bei concentrating her positions on several high-consensus coins. This wave, Sister Bei withstood Pepe's consecutive two-week decline, holding onto her chips fully in the market, and finally reaped the rewards; this week, the account rebounded by 400,000, with a position value of 2.283 million, floating profit of 655,000, and a return rate of 40%.
This morning, Ray took off, reducing some positions at 3.45, but still keeping a base position. Sister Bei plans to reduce her positions in batches at Pepe 1400 and 1630, and intends to reduce some positions in SOL at 200. Personally, I still hope for another opportunity to buy low in August to optimize my positions more reasonably. The pressure on Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands daily mid-line is still considerable; if Bitcoin can break through the downward channel's constraints, then the future market is even more worth looking forward to! We will see if the bearish spell of August can be broken and if the main upward wave will arrive early.
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