Key factors that may drive BTC price in 2025
With Bitcoin maintaining trading above $114,000 and continued institutional liquidity flow through ETF funds, investors are asking: Will we see Bitcoin above $125,000 soon?
In this analysis, we review the key technical indicators, on-chain data, and macro factors that support the continuation of the rise throughout 2025.
📊 Current Market Situation
Current Price: $116,684
Daily Performance: Up 0.82% with daily trading volume reaching $66.34 billion (+20%).
Market Capitalization: $2.32 trillion.
Technical Indicators:
The price is above the 20-day EMA ($115,929) and 50-day EMA ($113,456) → strong dynamic support.
MACD shows signs of a bullish crossover with declining negative momentum.
🏦 Supportive Factors for the Rise
1. Strong Institutional Liquidity:
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF surpasses $86 billion in assets under management.
Metaplanet increases its holdings to over 17,500 BTC.
2. Positive Macro Factors:
Forecasts of a 92.7% chance of a U.S. interest rate cut in September, boosting risk appetite.
A U.S. political proposal to enable retirement investment in digital currencies (potential impact of $9 trillion).
3. On-Chain Data:
Bitcoin supply on exchanges at its lowest level in years.
Increased accumulation by whales in large quantities.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Support: $115,000 – $113,000 – $108,900.
Resistance: $118,000 – $120,000 – $128,000.
As long as the price remains above $115,900, targeting 118K–120K is likely in the coming days.
Breaking the resistance at 120K could pave the way towards 125K–128K and possibly higher before the end of Q3 2025.
In case of losing support, we might see a correction towards 114K–113K before resuming the rise.
📅 Monthly Forecasts
August 2025: Continued trading above the long-term upward trend.
If $116,230 is breached with a strong daily close and high trading volume, it may ignite a rally towards 120K first, then 125K–130K later.
🎯 Summary
The overall picture for Bitcoin remains positive in the medium term, with strong institutional support and aiding macro factors, along with technical signals supporting the continuation of the bullish trend.
Watch Levels:
Key Support: $115,900
Critical Resistance: $120,000
Extended target in case of success: 125K–150K
📌 Note: This analysis is for educational purposes and not investment advice. Always do your own research before making any financial decisions.