On August 8, prediction market data from Polymarket showed the odds of the U.S. SEC approving a Ripple ETF soaring to nearly 89%, just hours after Ripple and the SEC reached a deal to end their legal battle that began in 2020. Analysts say the settlement removes one of the biggest hurdles that had been weighing on the ETF’s chances.
Earlier in the week, on August 6, approval odds sat above 70% before dipping to 62% following reports that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw voted against the proposal. However, Bloomberg ETF specialist Eric Balchunas downplayed the impact, noting that Crenshaw is in the minority and putting his own approval probability at 95%.
The bullish sentiment quickly rippled through the market, sending XRP up more than 12% to $3.36 before easing back to $3.24. With the lawsuit finally behind it, many traders believe XRP is now positioned to retest—and potentially break—its all-time high from July.