One, Technical Analysis: Bollinger Bands under pressure + overbought signals, clear demand for short-term adjustments.
From the current chart, the ETH price has reached the upper Bollinger Band (4305 USD) in the 1-hour timeframe, and is also approaching the upper band (4293 USD) in the 4-hour timeframe. Historical data shows that after ETH touches the upper Bollinger Band, it averages a 5.2% correction within 72 hours, and the current 4-hour RSI is close to the 70 overbought threshold, with MACD showing signs of a short-term death cross. These all indicate that there is indeed short-term correction pressure.
However, it is important to note that the middle band of the 1-hour (4150 USD) and 4-hour (3924 USD) serve as two key support levels. If the price can hold the range of 4150—3924 during a correction, the trend remains sustainable; if it breaks down with volume, it may trigger a deeper adjustment (testing the daily EMA or the 3500 USD level).
Two, Funding Situation: Futures are overheated but spot is 'supporting the bottom', leaving limited room for decline.
Recently, CME Ethereum futures open interest reached a new high of 7.85 billion USD, and the high-leverage speculation in the derivatives market has intensified short-term volatility risks. However, signals from the spot market are more noteworthy: over the past month, 170 whale addresses have accumulated an additional 1.7 million ETH, and institutions have continued to increase their positions through ETFs (adding 452 million USD in a single week). This 'buying support' from the spot market may buffer the extent of any corrections, reducing the probability of a deep decline (below 3500 USD).
Three, Market Sentiment: Intense battle between bulls and bears, but long-term bullish consensus remains intact.
From the liquidation map, there are a large number of long liquidation positions accumulated below the price (in the 3900—4000 USD range), and if a correction occurs in that area, it may trigger a chain sell-off; however, above (over 4300 USD), there are also high-leverage short positions. If the price breaks through the previous high, the buying pressure from short squeezes may push ETH further upward. This 'dual explosion' pattern indicates that short-term volatility will intensify, but the medium to long-term trend will still be led by spot funds.
Conclusion: The probability of a deep correction is low, and it is more likely to be a 'healthy adjustment'.
Currently, ETH is more likely to experience a technical correction of 5%—8% (for example, a pullback to 4000—3900 USD), rather than a 'deep correction' (below 3500 USD). In terms of operations, short-term traders can position long near support levels and set stop losses below 3800 USD; long-term investors do not need to panic excessively, as a correction may actually present an opportunity to add to positions at lower prices.
