The latest U.S. economic forecasts indicate that the Federal Reserve's decision on an interest rate cut in September will be influenced by several data and indicators expected in the coming days.
Despite the limited economic data this week, current signals reveal a slowdown in demand, while American labor productivity remains strong. However, declining economic activity and rising service prices suggest the possibility of the economy entering a mild recession.
Next week will be crucial, as three major economic reports will be released: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales data, which may support expectations for an interest rate cut in September.
Key upcoming events:
Tuesday: Release of the Consumer Price Index for July (20:30 UTC+8), followed by a speech from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (22:00).
Thursday: Statements from Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee on monetary policy (01:00), followed by remarks from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on the outlook for the U.S. economy (01:30). Later, weekly unemployment claims data and the Producer Price Index for July will be released (20:30).
Friday: Barkin's participation in a webinar (02:00), release of preliminary inflation forecasts for one year, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the business inventory rate (22:00).
If retail sales data on Friday show greater-than-expected economic weakness, it is likely that the forecasts for an interest rate cut in September will remain unchanged, with the possibility of an additional cut before the end of the year. Although any potential rise in the dollar may be supported by the Consumer Price Index, it is likely to have a limited impact.
On the political front, U.S. President Donald Trump continues to show readiness to impose additional tariffs on more countries, which could increase pressure on U.S. assets if trade tensions escalate.