Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still in place? Will we welcome an eternal bull market? The conclusion is: in this round of market trends, the selling pressure from old players exceeds the buying momentum from new funds. Even with institutional buying and rising expectations for interest rate cuts, the selling pressure remains hard to avoid. The cycle logic has not disappeared, but the extreme volatility will tend to ease.

1. Changes in Market Players and Chips

In the past, retail data (wallet numbers, search popularity, etc.) were key, but they have now become ineffective. The market is dominated by major players who can make a significant impact, so attention must be paid to ETF subscriptions and listed companies buying coins.

For instance, MicroStrategy holds 628,000 coins (accounting for 3% of the total), with a cost of about $73,000. They continue to increase their holdings but are not the main force behind the market. The price of Bitcoin fell 33% in the first half of the year, which is indicative of this. The ETF system holds 1.28 million coins (accounting for 6%), corresponding to $55 billion in funds, with a cost of $43,000, yielding substantial profits. BlackRock holds 740,000 coins; although the inflow is stable, it is not a key driver of price fluctuations. This year, when Bitcoin dropped from $110,000 to $74,000, ETFs sold fewer than 60,000 coins (less than 5% of their holdings).

Additionally, the government holds about 900,000 coins; Satoshi Nakamoto and lost coins account for 25%, which have permanently 'disappeared'. Currently, there are 19.72 million circulating coins (out of a total of 21 million), with a daily addition of only 450 coins, indicating the market has entered a phase of stock game. Nearly half of the chips are in the hands of old players who have experienced both bull and bear markets; the 33% pullback in the first half of the year stems from their selling.

2. Evolution of the Four-Year Cycle

The cycle is still present, but the volatility is easing, shifting from huge fluctuations to a slow bull market correction. In the past, it was 10,000 → 70,000 → 15,000; now it is more likely to be 50,000 → 120,000 → 70,000 → 150,000.

This is due to the new force of 'buying without selling,' where ETFs, listed companies, and others aim for long-term holding of 'digital gold.' Although they account for only 10%, they help stabilize volatility. The last bull market saw a correction of 55% (from 65,000 to 29,000); this round only saw a 33% correction (from 110,000 to 74,000), indicating a noticeable narrowing in range.