In recent days, the market has received conflicting signals about the chances of the SEC approving an XRP ETF in 2025.
While Polymarket reduced its odds to 62%, Bloomberg maintains an optimistic estimate of 95%.
🔹 What exactly happened
📊 Polymarket: the probability fell from 86% to 62% in just two days.
📉 The drop occurred after it was revealed that Caroline Crenshaw, SEC commissioner, will vote against.
📢 Bloomberg: her vote 'changes nothing' in the final outcome.
🔹 Why is there such a difference in estimates
According to Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg:
Crenshaw has always voted against everything related to crypto.
Her stance is a minority within the SEC, so her vote has no real impact.
The prediction market would have reacted emotionally to the headline, without considering the internal power structure within the SEC.
📈 Bloomberg remains firm
For Bloomberg, the odds remain at 95% that the XRP ETF will be approved before the end of 2025.
The institutional view relies more on the historical voting composition and trends of the SEC than on immediate market reactions.
💡 Lesson for investors
This episode reflects how perceptions can vary between platforms:
Prediction markets → react quickly to headlines, reflecting immediate sentiment.
Institutional analysts → base their projections on decision-making structures and backgrounds.
In crypto, understanding who has the real decision-making power can make the difference between selling out of fear… or seizing an opportunity.