This week’s U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet, but the next one is loaded with data that could heavily influence the Fed’s September rate decision.

Key Takeaways:

Current signals: Demand appears to be slowing despite strong labor productivity. Rising service prices alongside weaker economic activity suggest mild stagflation pressures.

Next week’s major data:

Tuesday (Aug 13) – July CPI (20:30 UTC+8)

Thursday (Aug 15) – Initial jobless claims, July PPI (20:30 UTC+8)

Friday (Aug 16) – Retail sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation expectations

Fed commentary: Barkin, Goolsbee, and Bostic will all speak on policy and outlook, potentially giving signals ahead of the September meeting.

Market impact:

Weak retail sales would strengthen bets on a September rate cut, with a second cut likely by year-end.

Even if CPI shows stronger inflation, any dollar rally may be brief due to broader slowdown fears.

Political risk: Trump’s openness to more tariffs could further weigh on U.S. assets if trade tensions escalate.

If you want, I can put together a timeline chart showing next week’s events and potential market impact scenarios so it’s easier to follow.