Ethereum's recent trend (from July to early August 2025) has shown characteristics of strong upward movement, high-level breakthroughs, and concentrated bullish momentum, especially today (August 9), breaking through the critical levels of $4100 and $4200, creating a new cycle high. The core driving factors include technological breakthroughs, favorable regulatory policies, institutional fund inflows, and enhanced ecological activity. Below is a detailed analysis:
One, Price Trend: From consolidation to a single-day breakout.
Previous consolidation and momentum accumulation.
From early July to early August, Ethereum's price started from about $2900, experiencing multiple rounds of high-level consolidation (repeated games in the $3500-$3700 range). During this period, the 24-hour volatility often exceeded 4%. Technical indicators showed that bulls were gradually accumulating energy (e.g., the 1-hour K-line MA5, MA20, MA60 were in bullish arrangement, and although the MACD histogram shrank, there was no significant divergence). This phase of consolidation not only digested short-term profit-taking but also completed the chip turnover through the differentiation of 'retail selling and institutional accumulation' (eight whale wallets accumulated a total of 583,000 ETH, worth $2.17 billion), laying the foundation for the subsequent breakout.
Today’s breakout: consecutively breaking through $4100 and $4200.
On August 9, Ethereum surged strongly with concentrated bullish funds, first breaking through the $4100 resistance in the morning. Market sentiment was instantly ignited, and buying power continued to flow in. In the afternoon, it quickly conquered the $4200 level, reaching a maximum of $4268 before the report, an increase of over 47% compared to early July, and nearly 7% compared to yesterday's closing price ($3982). This breakout not only broke the previous consolidation range of $3700-$3900 but also created a new cycle high, demonstrating extremely strong upward momentum.
Two, Technical Aspect: After breaking through key resistance, the upward space is further opened.
Moving averages and support levels are being reconstructed.
Short-term moving averages (5-day and 10-day) are sharply rising with the price, forming strong support. Currently, the 5-day moving average has moved up to around $4050, becoming a dynamic buffer zone for intraday pullbacks.
The key resistance level has shifted from $3800-$4000 to $4300-$4500. If it can maintain above $4200, the next target will be aimed at the historical high ($4867); the support level has moved up to $4000-$4100 (the previous high range that broke today). If it retraces to this range, it may trigger a game of profit-taking by bears and a re-entry by bulls.
Derivatives market and capital sentiment.
The open interest of perpetual contracts increased by 15% in a single day, and the long-short ratio rose to 2.3:1, indicating strong short-term bullish confidence; liquidation data shows that today’s short liquidations reached $87 million, further pushing the price upward.
The Fear and Greed Index has risen to the 'Extreme Greed' range (82 points), which suggests short-term overheating risks, but combined with continuous inflows of institutional funds (today's net inflow into spot ETFs exceeded $80 million), the market has strong expectations for trend continuation.
Three, Driving Factors: Policy, Capital, and Ecology Resonance
Regulatory policies continue to release positive signals.
The (GENIUS Act) and (CLARITY Act) implemented in July clarified the regulatory framework for stablecoins and the jurisdiction of crypto assets, reducing compliance risks and driving the circulation of stablecoins like USDT and USDC on the Ethereum chain (with a total minting of $6 billion in July). Additionally, the clause in the U.S. (Defense Authorization Act) that 'prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing CBDC without Congressional approval' has strengthened the market's preference for decentralized cryptocurrencies, further highlighting Ethereum's role as 'digital gold'.
Ecological activity and institutional applications drive growth.
The total value locked in DeFi (TVL) increased by 8% compared to last month, and Layer2 (such as Arbitrum and zkSync) processed over 5 million transactions in a single day. The implementation of high-frequency trading and complex financial operations has enhanced the practical value of the Ethereum network.
The NFT market remains hot, with weekly trading volume surpassing $180 million in July, and leading projects like Degenerate Ape Academy accounting for over 60% of on-chain trading; the tokenization scale of real-world assets (RWA) reached $7.72 billion, and traditional institutions like Bank of Communications are accelerating their layout in on-chain payments, further solidifying the ecological foundation.
Four, Risks and Future Focus Points.
Short-term risks: overheating pullback and resistance testing.
Although the current bullish trend is clear, the 'extreme greed' market sentiment combined with the historical dense resistance area of $4300-$4500 may trigger short-term profit-taking. If the price cannot effectively stabilize above $4200, caution is needed for the risk of retracing to the $4000-$4100 support range.
Long-term focus: technological upgrades and competitive landscape.
The test progress of the Fusaka hard fork (to optimize throughput and security) scheduled for implementation in November will directly impact market expectations for Ethereum's long-term performance.
Competition among public chains like Solana in the high-performance sector (e.g., Polygon processed 1.23 billion transactions in the first half of the year) still requires attention to whether Ethereum can maintain its dominant position through Layer2 ecology.
Summary: Caution against short-term fluctuations amid trend continuation.
Ethereum's recent trend is characterized by 'strong breakout after consolidation', breaking through $4100 and $4200 today, marking a concentrated release of bullish momentum. Regulatory positives, institutional fund inflows, and enhanced ecological activity provide long-term support, but short-term caution is needed regarding the pullback pressure triggered by 'extreme greed' sentiment. If it can stabilize above $4200 and break through the $4300 resistance, it is expected to accelerate towards historical highs; conversely, $4000 will become a key support to test trend strength. For investors, while grasping the long-term trend, it's essential to manage risks from short-term fluctuations.
Continuing focus: $EYH.
