"If the bulls don't explode in volume, pressure is an iron roof; if the bears don’t back off, support will end up as paper thin!"

Market breakdown: ETH is stuck at the line of life and death, 4050 is the key to today's victory or defeat.

From this morning's 1-hour candlestick, Ethereum is playing with heartbeats! The current price of 4013 USD is like walking on a tightrope, stepping on two lifelines below: upwards 4050 is a mountain of knives and seas of fire, downwards 3980-3950 is a bottomless cliff.

Key battleground visible to the naked eye:

4050 USD is today's crucial peak! This position is not simple—it’s both a previous high resistance level and a Fibonacci 0% retracement level (the dashed line at 4070 is just a small outpost). The two attempts in the morning were pushed back, clearly the bears are mounting heavy machine guns on the city wall.

The current price is being pressed below the yellow and white moving averages (EMA7 and EMA30), these two lines have just twisted into a braid, and are about to form a death cross! The technicals have already sounded the alarm: If it can’t close above the moving averages, the short-term trend will directly turn weak!

Volume reveals a big problem:

The most heartbreaking part is that trading volume is impotent! Every time it rises, it feels like a blank shot, the bars are short and wilted. Any rally without volume support is just fooling around—bullish ammunition is insufficient, why would they break through the 4050 fortress?

Personal prediction: Can it stabilize at 4050? Uncertain! The probability of retracing to 3825 is greater.

Old Bull makes this clear: Does ETH want to stabilize at 4050 and challenge 4100 today? No way! Three major flaws stand out:

Pressure is too strong: A large amount of trapped positions are piled above 4050, every attempt to charge is met with a crash, it's definitely a "mass grave".

Volume betrayal: Upward movement on low volume, downward movement on high volume, it’s clear that funds are fleeing.

Indicators have flipped: MACD turns green below the zero line, RSI stuck in the weak zone below 50, all are technical death knells!

A more dangerous script is here:

If it continues to hover around 4020 in the afternoon, beware of a bear night raid! Once it breaks through the purple key moving average (around 3980), it will inevitably trigger bullish stop-loss orders, and the psychological barrier of 4000 will turn to tofu dregs. The next stop will directly aim at the weekly support at 3825! Don’t underestimate it; on-chain data shows this position is filled with liquidation orders, and the whales love to smash this "fat meat zone"!

"Keep a close watch on the artillery at 4050, hold tight to the knife handle at 3980! If ETH dares to spike to 3850 tonight, will you buy the dip or cut losses? Share your battle plan in the comments!"

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