Consolidation is the calm before the storm, both bulls and bears are waiting for a trigger.

Core contradiction in the market: confrontation between bulls and bears in a shrinking volume oscillation.

Currently, BTC has been stuck in the 116,300-118,000 range for over 24 hours, with the 1-hour K-line showing a 'narrow converging triangle'. This pattern often suggests a turning point is imminent, but direction depends on three factors:

  1. Volume shrinkage: The turnover rate in the past 6 hours is less than 2%, indicating that major funds have not engaged on a large scale, and retail investors are observing closely;

  2. Key moving averages converge: The 4-hour MA30 and MA200 form double support, but 118,000 above is a previous high + psychological level, providing significant resistance;

  3. Derivatives market signal: CME Bitcoin futures open interest exceeds $5 billion, but the long-short ratio is 1.2:1, showing no extreme bets.

Qingyao's deep analysis: 'Contradictory signals' from three major indicators.

  1. MACD:

    • The fast and slow lines near the zero axis experienced a 'failed golden cross', forming a 'rejection of death cross' pattern, indicating a possible upward breakout in the short term;

    • However, the histogram has not significantly expanded, indicating insufficient upward momentum, and caution should be exercised for 'false breakout'.

  2. RSI:

    • Current value 56, in the neutral range, but has failed to test 60 twice in the past 3 days, indicating significant selling pressure above;

    • If RSI breaks 60 and holds, it may trigger short-term buying sentiment.

  3. Bollinger Bands:

    • Price oscillates closely between the upper and lower bands, with the middle band becoming a short-term dividing line for bulls and bears;

    • The bandwidth has narrowed to 2.5%, marking a new low for the week, indicating a turning point is approaching.

News-driven catalysts: three variables determining direction.

  1. U.S. stock correlation:

    • If the Nasdaq 100 index closes up more than 1% tonight, it may drive BTC to test 118,000;

    • Conversely, if tech stocks pull back, BTC may retrace to support at 116,300.

  2. Federal Reserve policy expectations:

    • New York Fed President Williams hinted that 'the probability of a 25bp rate cut in September is over 60%', if tonight's inflation data meets expectations, BTC may break through;

    • However, if the data exceeds expectations, the rate cut expectations may cool down, and BTC could be under pressure.

  3. On-chain data anomalies:

    • A whale address has placed an order for 500 BTC at 116,500, providing strong short-term support;

    • But another whale has placed an order for 300 BTC at 117,800, indicating that selling pressure above has not dissipated.

Historical patterns and cases: 'Extreme market conditions' after consolidation.

  1. October 2023 case:

    • BTC has been consolidating in the 27,000-28,000 range for 5 days, and eventually broke out due to ETF approval news, rising 12% in a single day;

    • Compared to the current situation: the consolidation time is shorter, but the news-driven catalyst is weaker, and the risk of 'favorable news falling through' should be noted.

  2. March 2024 false breakout:

    • BTC quickly retraced after breaking 70,000, triggering a chain reaction due to 'leverage long liquidation';

    • Compared to the current situation: the derivatives market does not show extreme leverage, but caution should be exercised for 'programmatic trading' triggering stop-loss orders.

Operational strategy: three steps to respond to the turning point.

  1. Short-term trading:

    • Range trading: 116,500-117,800 for high selling and low buying, stop loss at 500 points, take profit at 1000 points;

    • Breakout following: If it breaks 118,000 with volume, confirm with a pullback and enter a light position for a long, targeting 120,000; if it falls below 116,300, a rebound that does not break 116,800 will lead to a short position, targeting 115,000.

  2. Medium to long-term layout:

    • DCA strategy: If it falls to the 114,500-115,000 range, accumulate in batches, targeting 125,000;

    • Trend holding: After breaking 118,000, hold until the 120,000-122,000 range, monitor whether RSI is overbought.

  3. Altcoin opportunities:

    • SOL/TON: If BTC breaks out, focus on the Solana ecosystem or TON chain;

    • MEME coins: PEPE, WIF and other short-term volatility coins suggest using positions within 10% for speculation, with strict stop-loss settings.

Risk Warning: Three major black swan factors.

  1. Regulatory surprises: If the US SEC initiates a lawsuit against a major exchange, it could trigger market panic;

  2. Miner selling pressure: Recent increase in miner wallet balances, if BTC falls below 115,000, it could trigger concentrated selling;

  3. DeFi liquidations: Currently, BTC collateralized lending positions on Aave and Compound exceed $1 billion, a price crash could trigger a chain liquidation.

Will the BTC closing price at 20:00 tonight be the 'starting gun' for breaking 118,000, or the 'trigger' for falling below 116,300? Follow Qingyao for the first time analysis of major player movements, and seize the turning point window!#美SEC批准流动性质押