From $0.07 to $0.22, CFX completed a 200% violent surge in just 20 days, leaving a liquidation map with a river of bullish blood on-chain. This project, known as the 'only compliant public chain in China,' is experiencing one of the most tumultuous moments in cryptocurrency history: a coexistence of technological breakthroughs and selling pressure dilemmas, policy dividends, and ecological bottlenecks. As a veteran who witnessed the ICO frenzy of 2017, I can responsibly say: this is not an ordinary altcoin market, but a critical battle concerning the fate of blockchain in China.
1. The Paradox of Technological Revolution and Compliance Constraints
15,000 TPS + 26 seconds confirmation speed, Conflux 3.0 redefines public chain standards. The Tsinghua University Yao Class team has created 'Tree Graph Consensus,' achieving a 40% increase in resource utilization through dynamic sharding, and natively supporting AI on-chain calls, enabling smart contracts to automatically execute cross-border payments and RWA asset settlements. While other public chains are still struggling for thousands of TPS, CFX has completed a pressure test of 100,000 transactions per second on the testnet, with fees as low as $0.01.
However, the annual issuance of 10 million CFX from PoW mining is destroying market confidence. On-chain data shows that 95% of miner output flows directly into exchanges for sale, causing the price to hover around the private placement issuance price ($0.1) for a long time. Even if Grayscale increases its holdings by 10,000 CFX against the trend, it is hard to withstand a selling pressure of $5 million USDT daily. This paradox of 'the more advanced the technology, the heavier the selling pressure' has put CFX in an awkward position of 'getting praise but not sales.'
2. The 'Liquidation Hell' of Long and Short Struggles
$0.20, this seemingly ordinary price point, is actually the lifeline for CFX.
Upper Bullish Graveyard: $0.21-$0.22 range accumulates $120 million bullish positions, collectively forced to liquidate during the crash on July 25, with Binance's single platform liquidating over $140,000;
Lower Bear Trap: $80 million short positions lurking below $0.19, price rebound will trigger short covering.
What’s more dangerous is that the on-chain funds are voting with their feet. On July 31, a net outflow of 1.88 million CFX occurred in a single day, with medium whales selling 13.71 million coins, while small shrimp only sold 29,300 coins. This pattern of 'big fish escaping, small shrimp holding firm' indicates extreme divergence in market sentiment regarding short-term trends.
3. The Key to Breaking the Deadlock: Offshore RMB and RWA War
What truly determines the fate of CFX is the speed of the 'Belt and Road' strategy implementation.
The 'Digital Silk Road' pilot launched in August has made CFX the first public chain to connect to the SWIFT alternative system. The offshore RMB stablecoin CNHC, in collaboration with AnchorX, has completed its first energy trade settlement in Kazakhstan, with fees only 1/20 of traditional wire transfers. More importantly, the 200 million users of China Telecom's BSIM card are seamlessly accessing the CFX ecosystem via their phone numbers, and this combination of 'hardware entry + compliance narrative' may replicate the rise of WeChat Pay.
However, the ecological shortcomings remain fatal. Despite DeFi protocols like Treehouse going live, the locked amount is less than $100 million, far below Polygon's $5 billion. The NFT market has an average daily trading volume of only $2 million, which is an order of magnitude lower than Solana's $120 million. CFX needs to prove that compliance is not a constraint but the key to opening the doors of traditional finance.
4. The 'Devil's Triangle' of Technical Analysis
On the analyst's screen, CFX is exhibiting triple divergence.
Volume-Price Divergence: On July 21, when the price surged 100%, the trading volume reached $96.31 million, but on August 7, when it pulled back to $0.20, the trading volume was only $32 million, indicating that the main capital has not fully exited yet;
Divergence Indicator: MACD histogram changes from negative to positive, bullish forces gather; KDJ oversold value reaches 9, price approaches the critical point for a rebound from oversold conditions;
On-chain divergence: Cryptocurrency price declines, but PoS staking volume grows against the trend by 27%; institutions earn an annualized return of 12% through locking up assets, exposing the cognitive gap between professional investors and retail investors.
Conclusion: The 'Year of Compliance' in 2025
Today's CFX resembles Binance Chain in 2019.
Similar technological breakthroughs: Binance Chain achieves thousands of TPS with DPoS, CFX reaches tens of thousands of TPS with Tree Graph Consensus;
Similar policy dilemmas: Binance Chain survives in the regulatory cracks of various countries, CFX seeks balance within China's compliance framework;
Similar moments before explosion: Binance Chain surged 200 times during the 2020 bull market; can CFX replicate this legend?
My judgment is: short-term support at $0.196, mid-term breakout at $0.257, long-term focus on the implementation of the 'Belt and Road' strategy. If you are a risk-taker, you can build positions in batches around $0.20, with a stop loss set at $0.18; if you are a conservative investor, it is recommended to wait for a breakout above $0.23 before entering.
The outcome of this battle is not found on the K-line chart, but in the policy documents of Zhongnanhai. When compliance is no longer a shackle but a moat, CFX may usher in a 'Year of Compliance' for Chinese blockchain.
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