Hedera's HBAR token surged more than 8% today, but the overall trend is still not solid. Over the past week, HBAR has dropped nearly 10% and the current price structure continues to raise many questions.
Hedera, a Layer-1 network aimed at enterprise applications, is showing clear bullish signals along with strong accumulation activity from whales.
The number of whale wallets continues to increase.
In the past three weeks, the number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million HBAR has continuously increased. Since the beginning of August, this group of wallets has risen from 77 and 96 wallets to 79 and 102 wallets, equivalent to at least 62 million tokens being withdrawn from the circulating supply (based on minimum holdings).
Data from CoinGlass also shows that net inflows on the exchange have been negative throughout August and the latter half of July – typically a sign of supply scarcity as tokens are withdrawn from the exchange to self-custody wallets. However, the price has not reacted too positively.
The reason may be that these withdrawal transactions are primarily carried out by whales. In other words, whales might be moving HBAR from the exchange to cold wallets; there is still accumulation, but no new demand is entering the market. Without retail investor participation, the price is unlikely to continue rising.
Retail investors and smart money remain cautious.
Overall market sentiment has not changed. The Long/Short ratio indicates that 50.97% of positions are currently Shorting HBAR. This number is not too high but still reflects a trend betting on the possibility of a price reversal downward.
Without a clear rotation of traders switching to Long positions or new buyers entering, HBAR continues to struggle to find momentum. Even with positive signals about supply, the sentiment remains quite pessimistic.
The CMF divergence signal puts pressure on the bullish triangle pattern.
Technically, the price of HBAR is still holding above the gradually ascending trendline displayed on the 2-day chart. However, there are cracks forming. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures the momentum of inflow, has created lower peaks even as the price attempts to establish higher peaks.
This divergence indicates that purchasing power is weakening, seen as a warning sign, consistent with the lack of participation from retail investors and smart money.
If the price cannot break through the resistance area of $0.26, the pattern may lose momentum. A move below $0.23 would invalidate the current structure, confirming that smart money cannot drive HBAR up despite accumulation led by whales.
However, if the price breaks above the upper trendline of the triangle pattern and quickly reclaims the $0.30 mark, we can expect the bearish sentiment to completely dissipate, opening up opportunities for a new growth phase.