U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin revealed that Trump has clearly stated he will not fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. This statement has stirred ripples in the financial markets and has also released key signals for the crypto market.

From the perspective of market sentiment transmission, the sensitivity of crypto assets to macro policies continues to increase. When policy uncertainty decreases, institutional investors' wait-and-see sentiment will ease. Data shows that during the rumor period of personnel changes for the Federal Reserve Chairman in 2024, the institutional position volatility of Bitcoin futures surged by 37%; after the policy was clarified, the volatility returned to normal levels. Trump's statement is equivalent to providing a 'calming pill' for the crypto market, reducing concerns for institutional funds entering the market, which helps enhance market liquidity.

From the asset pricing perspective, a stable Federal Reserve means convergence of fluctuations in anchor indicators such as the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields. Bitcoin, as 'digital gold,' is closely related to the U.S. dollar liquidity environment. When monetary policy expectations stabilize, Bitcoin's safe-haven and speculative demand will find clearer pricing anchors. For instance, if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rate path, the oscillation pattern of Bitcoin in the $110,000 range is expected to be broken, initiating a new trend.

However, the crypto market must also be wary of the risk of 'expectation overdraft.' Policy stability is fundamental, but the subsequent actual operations of the Federal Reserve (such as whether to adjust the balance sheet reduction pace) still have variables. Investors should not blindly chase prices just because of personnel statements; they need to continuously track the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, inflation data, and more.

Trump's decision not to replace Powell has created a short-term stable macro environment for the crypto market. This event reminds practitioners that the crypto market has long been deeply embedded in the traditional financial system, and any fluctuations in macro policy will translate into signals for price changes on the blockchain. In the process of institutionalization and regulation, understanding the logic of macro policies is essential to better seize investment opportunities in crypto assets. $BTC $ETH #ETH巨鲸增持