Notcoin (NOT), as one of the most talked-about tokens on the TON blockchain, has undergone a transformation from a viral "click mining" game to a mature crypto asset since its launch in 2024. This article will comprehensively analyze Notcoin's development trajectory, current market performance, price drivers, technical analysis, and future prospects, helping readers understand this unique project that integrates meme culture, GameFi mechanisms, and social dissemination experiments. We will start from the origin of Notcoin, examining how it attracted tens of millions of users in just one year, exploring the key factors supporting its price, and providing professional forecasts for 2025 and beyond while also addressing the challenges and risks faced by the project.
Notcoin Project Overview: Origin and Core Mechanism
The birth of Notcoin marks a milestone moment in the integration of Telegram and blockchain technology. Initially launched as a "click mining" experiment in early 2024 through the Open Network (TON) ecosystem, it quickly became the most popular interactive game on Telegram. Its core mechanism is simple yet highly attractive: users can "mine" NOT tokens by simply clicking the screen within the Telegram mini-app, making this low-barrier, gamified design attract over 30 million users in just three months.
The secret to viral spread lies in Notcoin's clever combination of several elements: first, instant reward feedback, where each click by users directly translates into token accumulation; second, social dissemination design that encourages users to promote spontaneously through an invitation mechanism; and most importantly, seamless integration with the Telegram ecosystem, allowing users to complete all operations within the familiar chat interface without needing to download additional apps or deal with complicated wallet setups.
Notcoin's token economic model is also distinctive. The project employs a no pre-mining mechanism, distributing 78% of tokens to early participants through game mining, thus avoiding the risk of whale control. At the same time, Notcoin implements a full circulation strategy, with 100% of tokens released upon launch, reducing inflationary pressure but also bringing potential risks of early miner sell-offs. As of June 2025, Notcoin's circulating market cap is close to $187 million, with daily trading volume around $38 million, ranking in the top 200 of cryptocurrencies.
It is noteworthy that the Notcoin team has a clear understanding of the project positioning. Co-founder Sasha candidly stated at the Token2049 event that the simplistic "Tap-to-Earn" model is "essentially dead," and Web3 games are shifting towards more entertaining and social forms. This reflects the team's keen grasp of market trends and lays the groundwork for Notcoin's future transformation.
## Price History and Market Performance: Evolution from Explosion to Stability
The price trajectory of Notcoin serves as a textbook example of volatility in the cryptocurrency market, perfectly illustrating the typical characteristics of meme coins—short-term explosive power coexisting with high volatility. After launching on the mainnet in May 2024, the project experienced explosive growth, with the price reaching an all-time high of $0.029 on June 2, a staggering 190% increase from the initial price of $0.01, with a market cap once exceeding $3 billion. This phase of frenzied rise was primarily driven by the FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment of early participants and social media hype.
However, like the fate of most meme coins, Notcoin subsequently encountered a deep correction. By April 2025, the price of NOT had fallen back to a low of $0.0017, shrinking over 90% from its peak. This significant adjustment was primarily influenced by three factors: first, large-scale profit-taking by short-term traders; second, the cyclical adjustment of the overall cryptocurrency market; and third, market skepticism regarding the sustainability of the pure "click mining" model.
Entering mid-2025, Notcoin's price shows signs of stability, forming a relatively solid support level in the range of $0.0017-0.0020. Unlike many fleeting meme coins, Notcoin has avoided the fate of rapid decline after issuance; this price resilience indicates that the project has surpassed being merely a speculative tool and is starting to establish practical value support based on the TON ecosystem.
In May 2025, Notcoin experienced a cyclical price recovery, climbing from $0.0016 to a range of $0.0031-0.0035, with a 30-day increase of 46.29%. This rebound was closely related to a surge in DeFi activities on the TON chain, coinciding with the project's first anniversary celebrations, which included a two-week free giveaway event (distributing over 10,000 gift boxes). The technical landscape indicated that NOT was then facing a critical resistance level at $0.003, and a breakout could challenge $0.005, while a drop below the support of $0.0015 could retreat to $0.0012.
In terms of trading activity, Notcoin's 24-hour trading volume/market cap ratio reached 15.81%, indicating relatively healthy liquidity. It is particularly noteworthy that during a surge at the end of May 2025, NOT's 24-hour total network trading volume reached $4.635 billion, second only to USDT, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, ranking fourth in the entire network. This exceptionally high trading volume indicates that Notcoin can attract market attention and capital flows far exceeding its market cap during specific periods.
## Current Price Drivers: Four Pillars Supporting the Value of NOT
Notcoin's price performance in mid-2025 is not coincidental but the result of a series of interconnected fundamental factors. A deep understanding of these driving factors is crucial for predicting NOT's future trajectory.
The user base of Telegram forms the most solid value support for Notcoin. As of June 2025, over 35 million users have interacted through Notcoin's Telegram mini-app. This large user base not only provides continuous on-chain activity and social mentions but, more importantly, represents a potential channel for future adoption. As Telegram deepens its Web3 integration strategy, Notcoin is expected to become the flagship token for in-app microtransactions. Considering Telegram has over 700 million monthly active users, even a small proportion of conversions could significantly impact the demand for NOT.
Speculative momentum is another key variable affecting the price of NOT. Many users view Notcoin as a "free airdrop" asset, as tokens are mainly obtained through gameplay rather than real-money investments. This psychological accounting effect significantly lowers the selling resistance for holders, facilitating more active speculative trading behavior. Data indicates that Notcoin maintains popularity among retail investors and short-term traders seeking high volatility opportunities. Especially during the "altcoin season," when Bitcoin's dominance declines, NOT often attracts more capital inflows.
The overall development status of the TON ecosystem shows an increasingly strong correlation with the price performance of NOT. Developer activity on the TON blockchain significantly increased in 2025, receiving strong support from Telegram. As more DeFi, GameFi, and payment dApps are launched on TON, the demand for native tokens like NOT naturally rises. Notably, the technical advantages of the TON network are worth paying attention to: theoretical TPS (transactions per second) exceeds one million, with a single transaction cost of only about $0.04, providing an ideal infrastructure for high-frequency game interactions. As one of the first tokens to achieve large-scale adoption within the TON ecosystem, Notcoin is in a favorable position to lead the growth of this blockchain.
Adjustments in token economic policy have also played a significant role in shaping the price trend of NOT. To reduce selling pressure, the Notcoin team introduced staking and token burn programs. These mechanisms create a deflationary effect, encouraging long-term holding rather than short-term trading. Specifically, staking allows users to lock up tokens for rewards, while burning permanently reduces the circulation of NOT, and together they help form a healthier price floor around $0.0018. In the long run, this deflationary design may gradually alter the supply-demand balance of NOT, providing upward support for the price.
## Market Sentiment and Community Power: The Invisible Value Pillars of NOT
In the cryptocurrency realm, market sentiment often has a more direct impact on short-term price movements than fundamentals, and Notcoin has a unique advantage in this regard. Data measured through Telegram activities and trend dashboards indicate that Notcoin continues to maintain strong community attention—this enthusiasm even surpasses traditional crypto audiences. Its mobile-first distribution strategy, gamified mechanisms, and low participation thresholds make NOT particularly friendly to casual users, creating a unique niche market supported not only by technology but also by cultural resonance.
There are evident divergences in the crypto community regarding the long-term value of Notcoin; this divergence of opinion is part of its charm. Skeptics view NOT as just another fleeting meme coin, whose value relies entirely on market speculation; while supporters believe Notcoin represents a groundbreaking tokenized social dissemination experiment, pioneering a new model for mass adoption of cryptocurrency. Notably, even after a significant price drop from its peak in 2025, NOT still maintains astonishing community activity. For instance, on the project's first anniversary, users expressed gratitude on social platforms, many noting that Notcoin was their entry point for earning their first Web3 rewards, a sentimental connection that is far from what ordinary cryptocurrencies can match.
From a quantitative perspective, the community strength of NOT is impressive. As of May 2025, Notcoin has over 35 million users on Telegram and 6 million daily active players. On the X (formerly Twitter) platform, discussions about NOT show a bullish sentiment of 40.21%, while bearish sentiment accounts for only 25.43%. This positive sentiment tilt is quite rare in the cryptocurrency space, usually only top assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum can maintain such high community enthusiasm. The Notcoin team is also well-versed in community operations, regularly launching innovative initiatives such as Earn Launchpool, sticker stores, and Not Games, continuously providing users with blockchain-based rewards and collectibles to maintain engagement.
The most direct manifestation of community power is Notcoin's astonishing airdrop scale. In the past year, the project has distributed a total of $220 million worth of NOT rewards, the majority of which were distributed through major exchanges such as Binance ($86.3 million), OKX ($35.9 million), and Bybit ($2.8 million). Smaller "airdrop" activities have brought $2.41 million in rewards to 114,000 users, averaging about $210 per person, while early participants received $1.56 million in rewards through special events. This large-scale wealth distribution not only reinforces community loyalty but also creates a large number of token holding addresses for NOT, diversifying the token holding structure and reducing the risk of manipulation by a few whales.
The explosive growth in the number of TON wallets further verifies the community influence of Notcoin. The number of Jetton wallets increased from 209,784 on January 1, 2024, to 8,437,205 on May 16, 2025, an increase of over 3900%. This growth is largely attributed to the influx of new users brought in by successful projects like Notcoin, creating a positive feedback loop: more users attract more developers to join the TON ecosystem, while richer applications in turn enhance the practical value of NOT.
## Technical Analysis and Price Prediction: The Trajectory of NOT from a Professional Perspective
Conducting a professional technical analysis of Notcoin helps investors make more rational decisions in an emotional market. As of August 2025, the price trend of NOT exhibits several notable technical characteristics, which may signal the direction of market development in the coming months.
Observing the daily chart, the NOT/USDT trading pair shows that the price has been in a downward channel since early 2025, but the fluctuation range is gradually narrowing, signaling a potential trend change. Notably, since mid-May 2025, NOT has risen over 85%, climbing from $0.0016 to a local high of $0.0031-0.0035. This rebound was supported at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently hovers around $0.002748, forming a short-term dynamic support level.
In terms of key indicators, the short-term technical landscape shows mild bullish signals. The 20-day moving average currently provides support below the price, while the 200-day moving average and a moving average (around $0.0045) constitute resistance above. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading in May 2025 indicates that the market is in a neutral zone (around 48.50), and if accompanied by an increase in trading volume, there could be further upward space. The MACD indicator in the 4-hour timeframe shows that the blue line (MACD) is above the orange line (signal line), and the histogram is green, indicating positive momentum is accumulating.
A potential descending wedge pattern that may be forming is particularly noteworthy. This pattern typically appears at the end of a downtrend, characterized by decreasing volatility and narrowing price ranges, often signaling an upward breakout. The upper boundary of NOT's descending wedge is around $0.0033, and a successful breakout above this level could trigger a larger upward momentum. However, analysts also warn that the current upward momentum still lacks the volume support needed for a confirmed breakout and should be viewed cautiously.
Regarding key price levels, traders should closely monitor several important thresholds. Immediate resistance is located between $0.0033 and $0.0035, with the next target at $0.0045 after a breakout. On the support side, $0.0026 is the first significant defense line, while stronger historical support is around $0.0016. From the order book depth analysis, $0.003 is an important psychological level where a large number of limit sell orders are concentrated; once broken, it may trigger a chain reaction of short covering.
Professional institutions show significant divergence in price predictions for NOT, reflecting the project's high-risk, high-reward characteristics. For the remainder of 2025, conservative models like WalletInvestor predict an average price of $0.0065, with a fluctuation range of $0.0045-0.0082. In contrast, optimistic models like DigitalCoinPrice believe the price could break $0.0557, especially if the TON ecosystem user base exceeds 200 million, indicating a potential increase of over 300%. Predictions for the longer term in 2030 show even greater divergence: CoinCodex believes NOT could rise to $0.0894, provided that GameFi and SocialFi successfully merge to create scale effects; while risk scenario forecasts warn that if the meme coin craze recedes or the growth of the TON ecosystem slows, NOT could remain below $0.01 for an extended period.
## Bullish and Bearish Scenarios: Two Paths for the Future of NOT
The future development of Notcoin may take entirely different paths. Investors need to consider both optimistic and cautious perspectives simultaneously to make balanced risk assessments. Based on current market data and project fundamentals, we can outline two scenarios for NOT in 2025 and beyond.
The core assumption of the bullish scenario is that Notcoin can successfully transcend its viral spread origin and find lasting utility within the TON and Telegram ecosystems. Specifically, the following developments could drive NOT into an upward channel:
First is the expansion of use cases within Telegram. Currently, NOT is mainly used for game rewards, but if it can be integrated into more scenarios such as tipping systems, NFT trading, or group governance, its intrinsic value will significantly increase. Considering Telegram has a massive base of 700 million monthly active users, even a small percentage of adoption could create substantial demand. Secondly, deep integration with TON DeFi protocols. If NOT can become a trading pair or collateral asset on the main DeFi platforms on the TON chain, it will receive more stable liquidity support. Thirdly, upgrading the staking mechanism and strengthening token deflation strategies. More attractive staking rewards and more proactive token burning could significantly reduce market selling pressure, supporting long-term price strength.
In a bull market environment, if the aforementioned factors work in synergy, analysts predict that the price of NOT may rebound to the range of $0.0035-0.0050, and even challenge the historical high of $0.029. More optimistic long-term forecasts suggest that with the expansion of the TON ecosystem and the mainstreaming of Web3 games, NOT could reach $0.15-0.16 by 2030. In this scenario, NOT will transform into a truly utility token rather than merely a speculative tool.
In contrast, bearish risks should not be overlooked, mainly including the following key factors:
The most direct risk is user fatigue and declining engagement. The Tap-to-Earn model itself is already facing challenges; the co-founder of Notcoin has even publicly stated that this model is "essentially dead." If the project cannot timely transform into a more entertaining and social form, it may struggle to maintain the current user activity. Secondly, the ongoing sell-off by early adopters is a concern. Since most NOT was obtained for free through games, holders have a very low cost basis, and any price rebound could trigger a new wave of profit-taking. Thirdly, the development of utility may lag. If the Notcoin team fails to expand usage scenarios as planned, or if the overall development of the TON ecosystem does not meet expectations, NOT may struggle to shake off the label of a "shitcoin."
In a bearish scenario, the price of NOT may test the critical support level of $0.0016, and if it breaks below, it could further probe down to $0.0012. In a more pessimistic situation, if the overall cryptocurrency market enters a bear phase, NOT, as a high-risk asset, may be the first to be affected, making a long-term price below $0.001 also a possibility. In such a case, NOT would revert to purely meme coin attributes, with value relying entirely on market sentiment rather than fundamentals.
For investors, understanding these scenarios hinges on recognizing the dynamic changes in the value drivers of NOT. In 2024, the price of NOT was mainly driven by speculative enthusiasm, while in 2025, fundamental factors such as the development of the TON ecosystem and the level of integration with Telegram began to play a more significant role. Whether NOT can achieve a re-evaluation of value in the future largely depends on the project's ability to successfully transition from simple games to a complex ecosystem.
