(2025-08-07)
1. From 'Unable to Rise' to 'Possibly Able to Fall'
On July 14, Bitcoin hit a historical high of $122,838, but failed to break 120k three times in the following three weeks. Unlike previous instances where a 'V-shaped pullback' followed a new high, this time the price seemed 'stuck' in a narrow range of 115k–119k, with trading volume shrinking daily—typical of momentum exhaustion.
2. Traders are betting real money on 'August closing in the red'
Polymarket's latest odds show an 80% probability that BTC will fall below 111k in August, while the probability of returning to 125k is only 29%. The options market is also showing synchronized movements, with 110k put options (BTC-8AUG25-110000-PUT) being concentratedly purchased, with open interest tripling within a week, used to hedge against the risk of a sharp decline in spot or long contracts.
3. On-Chain Data: Short-Term Holders 'Jumping the Gun'
On-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant pointed out that in the past two weeks, short-term holders (holding period <1 month) saw the net inflow to exchanges reach a new high since March, while long-term holders' wallet addresses saw almost no change. Historical experience shows that when short-term chips accelerate to move to exchanges while long-term chips remain static, it often corresponds to a mid-term adjustment rather than a brief pullback.
4. Technical Analysis: Weekly Triple Bearish Divergence
Cointelegraph's latest technical report points out a 'triple bearish divergence' between the weekly RSI and price—higher price peaks but lower RSI peaks. In the past decade, this pattern has only appeared twice on a monthly level, both of which subsequently triggered corrections of over 30%. Coupled with NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) falling into the 'danger zone' of 0.5–0.6, this further increases the possibility of concentrated profit-taking.
5. Macroeconomics: Liquidity Marginally Tightening
Although the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September remains high, August is in a 'data blackout + interest rate silence' phase, and liquidity has become marginally tighter. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded 2% since July 25, and its correlation with BTC has rapidly risen to -0.71, indicating that a stronger dollar exerts additional pressure on cryptocurrencies.
6. Possible Downward Paths and Observation Points
1. First Support: 111k (August futures short target)
2. Second Support: 104k–106k (Weekly 50 EMA + former high trading concentration area)
3. Extreme Scenario: 92k (50 Weekly EMA, March 2024 and January 2025 pullback lows)
If August falls below 104k, the weekly structure confirms the establishment of a 'head and shoulders' formation, with a measured decline pointing directly to 85k–87k.
7. Operational Strategy: Waiting for 'Panic Confirmation'
Short-term: It is not advisable to blindly short before breaking 111k without significant volume; if a break occurs with over one hour of significant volume, one can short or buy put options in the 100k–105k range.
Mid-term: Maintain a 25% cash position, waiting for NUPL to return below 0.3 or RSI daily to fall below 35 before considering bottom fishing.
Long-term: The trend post-halving is still not over, and the $150,000 annual target has not been abandoned by mainstream institutions, but the timing is likely delayed to Q4 or even early 2026.
Bitcoin's 'Summer Storm' is not a declaration of a bull-to-bear reversal, but rather a delayed healthy correction. However, given the high leverage and loosening short-term chips, this storm may be more intense than most expect. Maintain low leverage, keep cash, and respect the signals—the rest is up to time.