Recently, Ethereum's fluctuations have affected people's mindset, so I would like to share my personal opinion:
Since 2022, $ETH has been trapped in a long-term oscillation pattern between $1000 and $4000, with $4000 becoming a key resistance level that is difficult for bulls to break through.
If it can break through with volume and hold above, the upper space may directly target $6000; if this round of market cannot break through, the subsequent pullback range of $800-$1400 will be a highly cost-effective layout area.
In the long term, the asset attributes of Ethereum and Bitcoin are becoming more similar, evolving from a speculation target for retail investors to an institutional asset allocation tool. The staking volume on the Beacon Chain exceeds 36 million ETH, and the annualized yield of the lock-up mechanism is 5%-14%, significantly reducing the circulating supply; the "GENIUS Act" requires stablecoins to be backed by U.S. Treasuries, further strengthening their underlying value. Therefore, even in the event of a future crash, the pullback may only reach around $2000, rather than the halving market seen in the past.
In the short-term trend, $3750 is the dividing line for bulls and bears. A breakthrough would give bulls renewed upward momentum, targeting $3850; if it continues to face resistance, caution should be exercised for a short-term adjustment, with $3520 being the key defensive level. The market's attention is always focused on $4000, which is the boundary between bulls and bears, as well as a touchstone for institutional and retail confidence.
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