In mid-July, amid the vibrant crypto community for 'Crypto Week' in Washington, XRP suddenly surged, reaching a 52-week high of $3.65 – just a few cents away from the all-time record of $3.84.

This has led many investors to believe that the question is no longer 'Will XRP surpass $4?' but rather 'When will it?'

And according to many forecasts, the $4 mark could very well be conquered before October 1. The reason? An important event in October could change how investors perceive XRP.

Spot XRP ETF – A new opportunity for XRP

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are the only two cryptocurrencies that have a Spot ETF – a type of investment fund that mimics the price of the actual asset by directly purchasing the underlying asset. But this is likely to change very soon.

Many major financial institutions have filed for the launch of a Spot XRP ETF, and the SEC is expected to make a decision around October 18 – 25.

Specifically:

  • Grayscale: decision on October 18

  • 21Shares: decision on October 19

  • Bitwise: decision on October 20

If the SEC applies a similar strategy when reviewing the Spot Bitcoin ETF and Spot Ethereum ETF, it is highly likely they will either approve them simultaneously or delay them collectively for further consideration.

Notably, according to some sources, the SEC may even expedite the timeline and approve it as soon as September due to a recent regulatory change.

Why is the Spot XRP ETF important?

With a market capitalization of around $180 billion, XRP is currently the third largest cryptocurrency in the world, behind Ethereum ($440 billion) and Bitcoin ($2.3 trillion). XRP accounts for about 5% of the total crypto market capitalization.

This scale makes XRP an attractive target for institutional investors – a group that tends to invest heavily in assets that already have ETFs.

According to JPMorgan, the mere launch of the Spot XRP ETF could help XRP attract up to $8 billion in new capital from now until the end of 2025.

This buying pressure will push the price of XRP, especially as we approach October 18 – the time of the SEC's ruling.

Currently, the market also has some ETFs related to XRP, but not Spot ETFs. Instead, they use derivatives to mimic the price of XRP. However, demand for these ETFs has been very high, indicating explosive potential when the Spot XRP ETF officially launches.

ETF or buying XRP directly – Which is the better choice?

For institutional investors, a Spot ETF is the ideal choice because:

  • Easily traded through traditional brokerage accounts

  • Managing and custodying assets is simpler

  • Meets legal and financial reporting requirements

However, for individual investors, the question arises:

"If you already have an account on Coinbase or crypto exchanges, why not buy XRP directly?"

An ETF only allows you to hold financial rights based on the price of XRP, but does not own the actual asset. If you want full control, purchasing and storing XRP directly is still a worthwhile option.

Additionally, BlackRock – the giant leading the Spot Crypto ETF market – currently has no plans to launch a Spot XRP ETF, which further encourages some investors to lean towards purchasing XRP directly rather than through an ETF.

Conclusion

If everything goes smoothly, XRP could surpass $4 just before entering Q4/2025.

The Spot XRP ETF event not only brings a significant opportunity for XRP but could also be a milestone that changes how the traditional financial community views this asset.

For investors, the question is not just 'Will XRP surpass $4?' but also 'How will you hold XRP?' – directly or through an ETF.

Whichever way you choose, a big storm may be approaching for XRP – and those who are prepared will be the first to benefit.