🔸️According to Cointelegraph, demand for Bitcoin from over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks and exchanges is expected to drive significant price growth due to an impending supply imbalance. These forecasts come from the head of Bedlam Capital, a well-known trader, who predicts a new shock in Bitcoin's supply. The decline in reserves on exchanges and OTC desks is expected to create a supply shortage, which could lead to a noticeable increase in the price of Bitcoin.
🔸️The head of Bedlam Capital highlights the role of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) as a key player in this scenario, described as 'the most asymmetric trade in the market.' He notes that Strategy has acquired 182,391 BTC since the beginning of the year, primarily through OTC trading desks. Currently, the collective balances of these desks have dropped to about 155,000 BTC. As these reserves dwindle, demand for public exchanges is expected to rise, potentially 'opening up' the price of Bitcoin. Despite recent volatility, corporate treasuries have increased their exposure to Bitcoin by 630 BTC in one day, even as the price remains at a three-week low. Strategy, which holds the largest Bitcoin treasury among public companies, continues to purchase BTC throughout 2025, regardless of price.
🔸️Meanwhile, exchanges have noted a decline in their Bitcoin (BTC) reserves over the past month, as long-term holders realize profits. On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode reports that the combined reserves of exchanges stood at 2.919 million BTC as of Tuesday. In its latest 'Market Pulse' report, Glassnode indicates a market shift from euphoria to reevaluation, with oversold conditions and seller exhaustion suggesting the possibility of a price rebound. However, the market remains fragile and susceptible to external negative factors or a delay in demand recovery.
🔸️Realizing profits remains a major focus for market participants amid fears of a deeper correction in the price of Bitcoin (BTC). Glassnode estimates that profits realized over the 24 hours leading up to Wednesday exceeded a billion dollars, with $362 million (about 35.8%) stemming from old coins held for 7-10 years. This rare situation may indicate internal transfers or actual exits. Additionally, $93 million of profits came from Bitcoin holders for 1-2 years, demonstrating notable profit realization. This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.