According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin's demand from over-the-counter (OTC) desks and exchanges is anticipated to trigger significant price growth due to a looming supply imbalance. This forecast comes from Bedlam Capital Pres, a well-known swing trader, who predicts a fresh Bitcoin supply shock. The declining reserves on exchanges and OTC desks are expected to create a supply shortage, which could lead to a notable increase in Bitcoin's price.
Bedlam Capital Pres highlights the role of Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) as a key player in this scenario, describing it as the "most asymmetric trade in the market." He notes that Strategy has acquired 182,391 BTC year-to-date, primarily through OTC trade desks. Currently, the collective balances of these desks have dwindled to approximately 155,000 BTC. As these reserves deplete, the demand on public exchanges is expected to rise, potentially "uncorking" Bitcoin's price. Despite recent fluctuations, corporate Bitcoin treasuries have increased their BTC exposure by 630 BTC on a single day, even as the price hovered around three-week lows. Strategy, holding the largest Bitcoin treasury among public companies, has consistently purchased BTC throughout 2025, irrespective of price.
Meanwhile, exchanges have observed a decline in their BTC reserves over the past month, as long-term holders take profits. Onchain analytics firm Glassnode reports that combined exchange balances stood at 2.919 million BTC as of Tuesday. In its latest "Market Pulse" newsletter, Glassnode notes a market shift from euphoria to reassessment, with oversold conditions and seller exhaustion suggesting potential for a price rebound. However, the market remains fragile and susceptible to external negative catalysts or delayed demand revival.
Profit-taking remains a significant focus for market participants amid concerns of a deeper BTC price correction. Glassnode calculates that 24-hour realized profits through Wednesday exceeded $1 billion, with $362 million (approximately 35.8%) originating from ancient coins held for 7–10 years. This rare event may indicate internal transfers or genuine exits. Additionally, $93 million in profits came from 1–2 year holders, marking notable profit realization. This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading decisions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.