Continuation of Weakness? Evening Market Trend Review (08.06)
First, look at the suggestions
1. Aggressive Traders: Do not chase highs or bottom fish, lightly short around $115,000 (set stop-loss), or go short when breaking $110,000.
2. Conservative Traders: Wait and see, enter the market after the direction becomes clear following this week's events.
3. Those with No Positions: Wait for tariffs and CPI to be released, make decisions after uncertainties are eliminated.
Short-term Trend Analysis
1. Current price $113,818.09 (↓0.85%), down 3.09% in 7 days, weakness continues.
Sellers dominate the market, futures selling pressure remains, low participation from major players, lacking strong support.
2. Resistance levels are $115,000, $120,000; support level is $110,000, breaking below may trigger a chain liquidation.
3. Futures trading is cooling off, leverage sentiment is cautious, and the risk of large-scale short squeezes is low.
Operational Window
1. Strong reduction signal: Whale ratio 0.984 (large whales are holding more coins, selling pressure surges), MVRV 2.216 (price may be overvalued).
2. Net outflow from exchanges - 2.3K BTC (seemingly a buying signal), but cannot withstand the selling pressure from large whales, prioritize downwards risk.
3. Major players are transferring coins to exchanges, retail investors are taking up positions, and downward pressure is accumulating.