In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin broke the $100,000 price barrier, and social media was flooded with tales of 'earning hundreds of times a year.' However, at the same time, Roman Gonzalez, the cryptocurrency manager at A&G Investment Company, issued a warning: 'All the factors for bubble formation are in place.' The opposition of these two voices reveals the deepest contradiction in the current cryptocurrency market—are we at the peak of the bull market, or have we already approached its end?
In the current cryptocurrency market, there is a familiar atmosphere of frenzy. According to data from the Robinhood platform, in the second quarter of 2025, cryptocurrency trading revenue surged by 98% year-on-year, with the number of new funded accounts reaching 2.3 million, and retail investors are entering at a speed comparable to the peak of the 2021 bull market. The trading group occasionally shares memes about 'meme coins skyrocketing a hundredfold within two hours of opening', reminding people of the madness of SHIB back in the day; even taxi drivers are discussing the 'Trump trade'—the former U.S. president's promise to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset undoubtedly injected a strong boost into the market.
However, history often has its rhythm. In 2017, before Bitcoin broke $20,000, a similar 'everyone is trading coins' phenomenon occurred; in 2021, Elon Musk's Dogecoin calls triggered a large influx of retail investors, which is remarkably similar in scale to the current situation.
What is even more concerning is that the total market value of cryptocurrencies has exceeded $3.8 trillion, yet the proportion of institutional investors remains below 20%. This means that the market's main force is still relatively weak retail funds, and once sentiment reverses, the risk of a stampede will be extremely severe.
To determine if the bull market has reached its end, one must focus on the core factor of Bitcoin halving. The halving event in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Historical data shows that the 12 to 18 months following a halving are typically a critical stage in the bull market cycle. According to the timeline, the second half of 2025 is in the latter part of this window, leading some experts to insist that the bull market is not over and even predict that Bitcoin could hit $300,000.
However, this time the situation is different, with policy factors becoming increasingly apparent. Trump's supportive policies and the popularity of U.S. spot ETFs have already preemptively exhausted some of the positives. Meanwhile, Russia has completely banned mining in several regions, and Europe has strengthened regulations on stablecoins, leading to tightening global regulations. This complex situation of 'simultaneous easing and dam building' disrupts the previous patterns of halving effects. As PANews analyst Wang Shengyu stated: 'The uncertainty of current mid-to-long-term trends is higher than ever.'
Regardless of whether the bull market is nearing its end, several facts cannot be ignored: The 'elevator effect' of the cryptocurrency market has not changed—rising in the elevator, falling on the escalator. The current market's FOMO sentiment is approaching its limit, and the risk of funding schemes in altcoin exchanges is gradually accumulating.
For ordinary investors, instead of straining to guess the peak of the bull market, it is better to do the following three things:
1. Concentrate holdings in mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and stay away from air coins with no actual value;
2. Choose compliant exchanges, such as the Hong Kong licensed HashKey Exchange or top platform Binance, to avoid the risk of 'fly-by-night platforms' running away;
3. Strictly control positions, remembering that in the 2018 bear market, 80% of traders were liquidated, and the lessons of leveraged players going to zero overnight during the 2022 LUNA collapse have yet to be deeply reflected upon.
Standing in the summer of 2025, the clamor of the cryptocurrency space continues. Some see it as the last revelry under Trump's policy dividends, while others firmly believe that the golden decade of Web3 has just begun. Regardless of your viewpoint, one should remember the old saying: When the aunties in the vegetable market start talking about cryptocurrencies, it might just be time to buckle up. After all, the secret to making big money in the crypto world has never been about judging bulls and bears but rather being able to 'survive to the next cycle.'
