The 'trilateral structure' of Bitcoin, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and stablecoins competes with gold not to 'replace' it, but to form a layered symbiosis within the monetary system.

Gold: Irreplaceable 'ballast'

With physical scarcity, millennia of consensus, and central bank reserves backing, it remains the ultimate safe-haven asset under extreme risk. Its trustless property (not relying on technology or institutions) is irreplaceable, and it may combine with the digital world through tokenization (e.g., PAXG), but its core status is unlikely to be shaken.

The positioning and limitations of the three

  • Bitcoin: Competing for the 'digital gold' status with a hard cap of 21 million and decentralization, with institutional holdings enhancing its value storage attribute, but high volatility (annualized around 70%) and policy sensitivity remain obstacles, likely serving as a risk asset supplement rather than completely replacing gold.

  • CBDC: Focused on payment efficiency and financial sovereignty, suitable for everyday circulation and policy regulation, but reliant on national credit and traceable transactions, making it difficult to serve as a value storage tool, complementing gold's functions (the former manages payments while the latter hedges risks).

  • Stablecoins: Dominating payment scenarios (such as cross-border, DeFi) with fiat currency backing and second-level settlement, but relying on the issuer's credit and regulatory compliance, leading to long-term value uncertainty. Some gold-pegged stablecoins may partially replace gold liquidity.

Future Landscape: Layered competition, symbiotic evolution

  • Value Storage Layer: Gold coexists with Bitcoin, with gold maintaining dominance through physical attributes and central bank reserves, while Bitcoin reduces volatility through institutionalization, becoming an asset allocation option.

  • Payment Settlement Layer: CBDCs (sovereign-led) and stablecoins (market-driven) compete along separate tracks, complementing each other in scenarios like cross-border transactions and supply chains.

  • Core Logic: No single 'dominant player', but a dynamic balance between traditional and digital, sovereign and market. Gold remains the foundation of the monetary system, and the three serve diverging functions in their respective domains, collectively reshaping the monetary ecosystem.