Many cryptocurrency traders are looking forward to a new "altcoin season," where alternative coins like Ethereum, Solana, or DeFi tokens can surge. However, the latest market data and technical signals suggest that it may be too early to expect that.

Bitcoin Dominance Remains High – Bad Signals for Altcoins

On the 3-day timeframe, Bitcoin Dominance (the market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin compared to the entire crypto market) is still holding steady above the important support zone of 60.5% – 61%.

This is important because when Bitcoin's dominance is high or continues to rise, capital flow often prefers to stay in BTC rather than flow into altcoins. Conversely, for altcoins to truly explode, dominance needs to decrease sharply and stabilize below this support zone.

Although there has been a small recent drop that helped altcoins bounce slightly, this is not yet a confirmed signal for a real altcoin season. If dominance rises again from the current zone, selling pressure on altcoins will become even heavier.

Ethereum ETF Records Worst Capital Outflow Day in History

Another worrying factor comes from the activity of Ethereum ETFs on Wall Street. Just last Monday, over $465 million was withdrawn from spot ETH ETFs – the largest number since these products were launched.

Notably, BlackRock's Ethereum ETF alone has seen $375 million withdrawn. This is a record capital outflow in a single day, clearly reflecting the concern and lack of confidence in ETH's short-term outlook from institutional investors.

Ethereum Hits Strong Resistance and Shows Bearish Signals

Technically, Ethereum (ETH) is still struggling as it is continually rejected at the strong resistance zone of $3,900 – $4,100. Each time the price approaches this zone, selling pressure increases, pulling ETH back down.

Additionally, bearish divergence has appeared on ETH's daily chart – a signal that often indicates the potential for price correction. The last time this pattern appeared, ETH dropped significantly in the following weeks. If the scenario repeats, it is highly likely that ETH will face selling pressure in the near future.

Conclusion

Although many traders are hoping for a new altcoin season, current data does not support this.

  • Bitcoin dominance remains high → The capital flow is not ready to leave BTC for altcoins.

  • Ethereum ETF records record capital outflow → Short-term confidence weakens.

  • ETH faces strong resistance + bearish signals → The risk of correction remains high.

Investors need to be patient and closely monitor market signals. A real altcoin season only begins when Bitcoin dominance sustainably decreases and confidence returns to altcoins, especially Ethereum.