1. Market observation
Trump suggested on Tuesday that he is 'very likely not' seeking a third term, with current Vice President Vance being 'most likely' to become the Republican presidential candidate for 2028, but emphasized that it is 'too early' to make a final decision. Against this backdrop, Trump stated that he will decide on the new Federal Reserve Board member this week, narrowing the candidates for the next chairperson to four, including former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, while planning to announce new tariffs on drugs and chips within the next week.
On a macroeconomic level, former Treasury Secretaries Paulson and Geithner jointly warned that the US Treasury market, worth as much as $29 trillion, is facing multiple threats from unsustainable fiscal paths and political system issues. Geithner pointed out that although the current 10-year US Treasury yield is at a quite moderate level, supporting factors such as the rule of law and Federal Reserve independence are facing unprecedented gloom. This concern further fermented after President Trump dismissed the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), triggering market doubts about the credibility of official data, particularly posing potential risks to the $2.1 trillion inflation-protected securities (TIPS) market linked to CPI. However, weak employment data has led Wall Street to generally expect that the Federal Reserve's policy turning point is approaching. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that the Fed will start cutting interest rates as early as September, potentially by 25 or even 50 basis points, with the final policy rate possibly dropping below 3%.
In the digital asset space, Hong Kong's Web 3.0 layout is showing positive effects. HashKey's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding pointed out that Hong Kong-listed companies are entering Web 3.0 through financing, not only promoting financial innovation through applications like RWA and DeFi, but also broadening financing channels and enhancing market liquidity. Moreover, they are optimizing their own supply chain management and operational efficiency through the integration of blockchain technology, thus enhancing their global competitiveness. This trend is attracting global capital and talent inflows, laying a solid foundation for Hong Kong to build a mature and regulated digital asset ecosystem and become a hub for Web 3.0.
In the past two weeks, Bitcoin fell below the short-term support range of $115,000 to $118,000, leading to the liquidation of over $1 billion in leveraged long positions. Analyst Material Indicators warned that due to weak buying support above $110,000, prices may further drop to the $109,000 region. Analysts AlphaBTC and KillaXBT also believe the market may test the support level of $112,000; if it breaks, it may trigger deeper adjustments. KillaXBT plans to establish long positions in the range of $111,953 to $110,649, setting a stop-loss above the monthly opening price of $115,600. Analyst Murphy also emphasized that $112,000 is the key lower support of the MVRV pricing channel; if it holds, the rebound peak may reach the upper price of $124,000, with the current $117,000 to $118,000 being the most critical resistance level. The ideal scenario is for prices to consolidate in the $112,000 to $117,000 range to build strength for subsequent breakthroughs. QCP Capital also thinks that the recent pullback is more like a correction, with activities in the options market betting on prices rebounding to $124,000. From a longer-term perspective, analyst Arndxt predicts that based on liquidity models and historical halving cycles, Bitcoin prices could peak around September 2025 at $135,000 to $150,000.
Driven by continuous institutional interest, Ethereum's price has rebounded to around $3,650. Despite its ETF experiencing a record net outflow of $465 million on August 4, on-chain data shows that institutions and whale addresses are still actively buying through over-the-counter transactions. Notably, an entity-controlled four multi-signature wallets received over $363 million worth of ETH in the past two days.
Pump.fun's trading volume and token minting quantity in the past 24 hours have unexpectedly surpassed Bonk.fun, with data showing that the platform purchased about 8,740 SOL worth of $PUMP over the past 6 days, accounting for 102% of total revenue. Pump.fun co-founder Alon stated that Meme coins like Fartcoin have succeeded due to pure community consensus, and other projects within the Pump.fun ecosystem, such as $TROLL, $USDUC, and $TOKABU, have performed strongly. Influenced by this, tokens like Fartcoin, TROLL, and PUMP ranked high in trading volume in the past 24 hours, with TROLL token's 24-hour increase close to 100%. The quick pass coin SPARK on Pump reached a market cap of $18.8 million last night, currently falling back to around $10 million. Meanwhile, the decentralized derivatives protocol MYX has risen 16 times in the last 7 days and broke its historical high of $2.12 this morning, with a 24-hour increase of 72%. On-chain data suggests that there may be manipulation behavior linked to spot and contract trading behind the price surge. Notably, the Chinese Ministry of National Security has issued a warning about the risks of collecting biometric data, though it did not name names, but its description closely matches the Worldcoin project.
2. Key data (as of August 6, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $113,525 (YTD +21.98%), daily spot trading volume $36.389 billion.
Ethereum: $3,582.39 (YTD +8.91%), daily spot trading volume $27.522 billion.
Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 0.23 sat/vB, ETH: 0.40 Gwei
Market share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, GAS, SOL
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 48.13%/51.87%
Sector gains and losses: NFT sector down 5.56%; SocialFi sector down 4.89%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 137,141 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $358 million, including $56.779 million in BTC, $114 million in ETH, and $17.53 million in SOL.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($116,574.45), lower line ($114,266.04)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($3,637.20), lower line ($3,565.17)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping status.
3. ETF inflows (as of August 5)
Bitcoin ETF: -196 million USD, continuous net outflow for 4 days
Ethereum ETF: +73.22 million USD
4. Today's outlook
Linea on-chain DEX Etherex will launch REX on August 6.
Trump's reciprocal tariff implementation date is delayed by a week to August 7.
Binance Alpha and contract platform will launch INFINIT (IN) on August 7.
Heroes of Mavia (MAVIA) will unlock about 11.89 million tokens at 8 AM on August 6, accounting for 23.03% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $1.9 million.
EigenCloud (formerly EigenLayer) will unlock about 1.29 million tokens at 3 AM on August 6, accounting for 0.40% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $1.4 million.
Jito (JTO) will unlock about 11 million tokens on August 7, valued at approximately $21 million.
Top 100 market cap gains today: Pump.fun up 11.5%, Saros up 4.1%, Curve DAO up 2.2%, HTX DAO up 1.9%, Ethena up 1%.
5. Hot news
Ministry of National Security: A certain overseas company is collecting iris information under the pretense of issuing cryptocurrency tokens, posing a threat to national security.
Hack VC has transferred out $2.157 million worth of MYX received from the airdrop claim contract.
Jito proposes to allocate 100% of block engine fees to the DAO treasury.
Suspected entities have received over $360 million worth of ETH through four wallets in the past two days.
Zhao Changpeng applies to dismiss the FTX trust's $1.76 billion claim against him.
Over 955,000 Bitcoins held by a hundred global listed companies.
Galaxy plans to issue tokenized stocks GLXY.
The CEO of Bitcoin Magazine plans to raise $200 million to support BTC-related political actions, aiming to propel BTC to $10 million.
The recovery trend of Ethereum on-chain in July is evident, with trading volume nearing $240 billion.
pexi company's SOL holdings exceed 2 million, with a market value of over $300 million.
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets. It is committed to setting a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
