📊 Bitcoin HODL Waves – Where Are We Really in the Cycle?


This chart tells a powerful on-chain story that price alone can't.


Here’s what stands out 🧵👇



🔸 1. Older Coins Are Dominating

The bands representing 6m to 7y holding periods are thickening — especially the 1y–2y and 2y–3y layers.

That means more BTC is sitting untouched in long-term wallets.

These are not speculators — these are conviction holders.

🔸 2. Young Coins Are Fading

Notice how thin the 0d–3m bands have become.

Fresh buyers and short-term traders are barely active right now.

This often happens during early/mid phases of a bull market — when strong hands quietly accumulate.

🔸 3. Price is Climbing WITH Supply Aging

Unlike parabolic tops (where new buyers flood in), current price growth is happening while supply is aging.

That's typically a bullish divergence — strong hands are in control.

This dynamic reduces sell pressure. Supply is off the market.

🔸 4. No Signs of Distribution Yet

During major tops, we usually see long-term holders selling → young supply spikes.

That’s NOT what’s happening here.

Instead, we’re seeing the opposite: diamond hands growing stronger 💎🙌

🧠 What it means:

This is not a hype-driven rally.

It’s foundation building — silent but powerful.

If this trend continues, a deeper phase of the bull run could be next.