📊 Bitcoin HODL Waves – Where Are We Really in the Cycle?
This chart tells a powerful on-chain story that price alone can't.
Here’s what stands out 🧵👇
—
🔸 1. Older Coins Are Dominating
The bands representing 6m to 7y holding periods are thickening — especially the 1y–2y and 2y–3y layers.
That means more BTC is sitting untouched in long-term wallets.
These are not speculators — these are conviction holders.
—
🔸 2. Young Coins Are Fading
Notice how thin the 0d–3m bands have become.
Fresh buyers and short-term traders are barely active right now.
This often happens during early/mid phases of a bull market — when strong hands quietly accumulate.
—
🔸 3. Price is Climbing WITH Supply Aging
Unlike parabolic tops (where new buyers flood in), current price growth is happening while supply is aging.
That's typically a bullish divergence — strong hands are in control.
This dynamic reduces sell pressure. Supply is off the market.
—
🔸 4. No Signs of Distribution Yet
During major tops, we usually see long-term holders selling → young supply spikes.
That’s NOT what’s happening here.
Instead, we’re seeing the opposite: diamond hands growing stronger 💎🙌
—
🧠 What it means:
This is not a hype-driven rally.
It’s foundation building — silent but powerful.
If this trend continues, a deeper phase of the bull run could be next.