📊 Turing AI Analysis: Forecast of the U.S.-China Tariff Situation Evolution

According to Turing AI's analytical model of the U.S.-China trade situation, the current core variable is no longer traditional trade negotiations, but the geopolitical game surrounding whether China will stop importing Russian/Iranian oil. Based on political signals, historical data, and economic reaction simulations, AI predicts that the most likely scenario after the expiration of the 'Tariff Truce' on August 12, 2025, is:

🔹 'Tense Truce' Scenario (Probability: 60%): Current tariffs remain unchanged, China may make a 'vague commitment' on energy issues to buy time, while the U.S. continues its current pressure strategy awaiting election results.

Behind this prediction, Turing AI has captured three high-weight signals:

- The Biden administration is unwilling to provoke market turmoil before the elections;

- China has a tough stance on energy issues, clearly rejecting U.S. demands;

- The legal battle regarding IEEPA authorization decisions has not yet materialized, indicating policy flexibility.

📉 If this prediction comes true, it would mean that the total tariff rate of 30%~70% will become the new norm, global supply chains for businesses will continue to face pressure, and consumer prices as well as U.S. GDP will also continue to be dragged down.

📍 Turing AI reminds to pay attention to:

- Official statements from the U.S. and China around August 12;

- Abnormal fluctuations in the offshore RMB exchange rate;

- China's counter-signals targeting key mineral exports or U.S. enterprises.

🌐 What is your choice? Come and make your prediction: https://avax-test.turingmarket.cc/details/u.s.-tariff-rate-on-china-on-august-15-?id=1000734