"The longer the sideways movement, the more intense the breakout. BTC is now like a spring compressed to the extreme, just waiting for an opportunity to explode!"

Market analysis: The battle between bulls and bears is intensifying.

From the 1-hour candlestick view, BTC/USDT is currently fluctuating around 113,500, with strong resistance at 115,500 above and short-term support at 112,500 below. It dipped to 113,400 earlier this morning before rebounding, but the bulls couldn't break through in one go, indicating the market is waiting for new variables.

  1. Moving average system: Short-term moving averages are flat, while the yellow and purple long-term moving averages are still upward, indicating a short-term adjustment, but the trend is not broken.

  2. MACD indicator: The red bars are shortening, and there are signs of a dead cross for the fast and slow lines. If the volume doesn't keep up this afternoon, it may test support at 112,000.

  3. Key level:

    • Breaking 115,500 may challenge the previous high of 116,800.

    • Breaking below 112,500 may test 111,000.

News: Data disturbances, market sentiment is cautious.

  1. US PMI under expectations: Weak service data, US dollar weakens, theoretically favorable for BTC.

  2. Tonight's Federal Reserve official speech: If there are hawkish comments, BTC may face pressure.

  3. On-chain data: Large whale addresses are slowing down their accumulation, but the BTC stock on exchanges is declining.

Shenlong's personal opinion:
The current market is like the sideways movement in March 2024—at that time, BTC hovered around $60,000 for 2 weeks, then surged 30% directly due to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance. Will history repeat itself this time? It all depends on the Federal Reserve's attitude tonight!

Shenlong's operational strategy: Focus on key levels, don't get shaken out by volatility.

  1. Short-term:

    • Breaking 115,500, cautiously add to long positions with a stop-loss at 114,500 and a target of 116,800.

    • Breaking below 112,500, observe and wait to buy around 111,000.

  2. Medium-term:

    • If it stands at 115,500, it can build positions in batches, with a target of 120,000.

    • If it dips to 111,000 without breaking, it's still a buying opportunity.

  3. Long-term:

    The weekly upward channel is intact; any sharp decline is a discount buying opportunity.

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#BTC走势分析 #加密货币政策