When Bitcoin breaks the 100,000 USD mark in the first half of 2025, social media will be filled with 'hundredfold profits in three years' wealth myths; meanwhile, Roman Gonzalez, a cryptocurrency manager at A&G Investment Company, warns: 'All factors for another price bubble are brewing.'

The rift between these two voices perfectly articulates the sharpest question in the current crypto world - are we standing at the peak of the bull market or its end?

Today, the crypto world is filled with a familiar frenzy. Data from Robinhood shows that in the second quarter of 2025, cryptocurrency trading revenue surged by 98% year-on-year, with new funding accounts reaching 2.3 million, and retail investors entering at a pace comparable to the peak of the 2021 bull market.

The meme coin myth of 'a hundredfold in two hours after opening' is circulating again in the group, reminiscent of the madness of SHIB back in the day; even taxi drivers are discussing 'Trump trades' - the news that this former US president promised to classify Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset has indeed injected a strong dose of optimism into the market.

But history always rhymes. Before Bitcoin broke 20,000 USD in 2017, a similar phenomenon of 'everyone trading coins' had occurred; when Musk promoted Dogecoin in 2021, the scale of retail investors pouring in was astonishingly similar to now.

What is even more alarming is that the total market value of cryptocurrencies has surpassed 3.8 trillion USD, while the institutional holding ratio is still less than 20% - this means the market's main force is still the fragile retail capital, and once sentiment reverses, the risk of a stampede is unimaginable.

To determine whether the bull market is nearing its end, one cannot ignore the core variable of Bitcoin halving. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC; historical patterns show that the 12-18 months following a halving are often a key stage in the bull market cycle.

From a timeline perspective, the second half of 2025 is in the latter part of this window period, which is also why some experts insist that 'the bull market is not over' - HashKey Group even predicts Bitcoin could soar to 300,000 USD.

But the difference this time lies in the strong intervention of policy variables. Trump's supportive stance and the popularity of the US spot ETF have preemptively exhausted some of the benefits;

Meanwhile, Russia's complete ban on mining in ten regions and Europe's tightening of stablecoin regulation suggests that global regulatory coordination is strengthening. This complex environment of 'flooding while building dams' has diluted the historical effects of halving. As PANews analyst Wang Shengyu said: 'The uncertainty of the medium to long-term trend is higher than ever.'

Whether the bull market is nearing its end or not, several facts are already clear: the characteristic of cryptocurrencies 'rising in an elevator and falling on an escalator' has never changed.

Current market FOMO sentiment is approaching extremes, while the risk of funds in altcoin exchanges is accumulating.

For ordinary investors, rather than guessing when the peak will arrive, it's better to focus on three things:

First, concentrate holdings in mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, staying away from air coins with no real value;

Second, choose compliant exchanges, such as the licensed HashKey Exchange in Hong Kong or top platform Binance, to avoid the risk of 'shady platforms' running away;

Third, strictly control your position - remember that the 2018 bear market caused 80% of traders to be liquidated, and isn't the lesson of leveraged players losing everything overnight during the LUNA crash in 2022 profound enough?

Standing in the summer of 2025, the clamor in the crypto world continues.

Some see it as the last carnival under Trump's policy dividends, while others firmly believe the golden decade of Web3 has just begun. But regardless of one's stance, it's important to remember an old saying: when even the market's aunties start talking about cryptocurrencies, it might just be the time to buckle up.

After all, the secret to making big money in the crypto world has never been about judging bull or bear markets, but rather surviving to the next cycle.

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