From yesterday to today, I have seen countless KOLs, traders, and leeks all rushing to short MYX. The logic is simple: this is a manipulated coin, and it will definitely drop; it's just a matter of time.
That's right. I agree it will definitely drop, but when is the best time to short for a higher win rate? Is there a fundamental logic behind the market manipulation?
First, I want to ask a question. I believe 99% of short sellers may not have understood the funding fee of Binance MYXUSDT.P contract, where the spot price is sourced from. The funding fee is calculated from the difference between futures and spot prices, but MYX has not launched the spot on Binance, only futures. So why can it always maintain a -2% funding fee? The answer is:
And let me tell you, yesterday the composition was not like this; yesterday MXC and BITGET each accounted for 40%, and Pancake accounted for 20%.
Why did Binance make this adjustment? Because they also realized that the project party is manipulating the spot price on MXC and BITGET.
Here I want to mention a necessary condition for a manipulated coin to complete its harvest:
1. Binance has only launched futures and not the spot market.
2. Binance did not launch the spot market, but smaller exchanges did, and the liquidity is average; smaller exchanges are better for the leeks.
3. The chips are concentrated enough, and the project party has released very few early tokens.
[Not launching the spot market is critical because Binance has launched both the spot and futures markets. When the project party pushes the spot price on Binance, making long positions in the contract will be subject to Binance's risk control; this is market manipulation.]
Regarding the third point, it is clear that MYX was previously on Binance Alpha, and the project party could not release much even if they wanted to; they must have the chips in hand.
After meeting the above conditions, the project party just needs to accumulate a large position at the bottom of the Binance contract. Once the position is built, they will desperately push the spot price up on smaller exchanges because the funding fee on Binance comes from these smaller exchanges. The funding fee has already drained the project party's long positions, not to mention that the chips are all in the hands of the project party. Pulling up the price or when to start dumping is not decided by the leeks at all. Once you take a short position early, you have basically boarded the project party's hearse.
Let me reiterate here; everyone still needs to be cautious. The contract market is a zero-sum game, and be wary of the project party's market manipulation. Last time, the alpaca used forced liquidation due to contract delisting. After the project party bought the alpaca shell, Binance confirmed the final delisting time, and the project party just needed to desperately push the contract to harvest because they didn't need to consider closing positions. After delisting, it would automatically force liquidation to help long positions close.
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Now let's talk about the most critical time to short MYX for the best cost-performance ratio.
My answer is that when the MYXUSDT.P negative funding fee loosens, this is exactly what I did.
A loosening of the funding fee represents several possible occurrences:
1. The smaller exchanges have started dumping the spot market, hence the funding fee has loosened. [This situation indicates that the project party is ending this round of market manipulation.]
2. There is a super large position in the leek coin on Binance, pulling the contract price close to the spot price. The huge liquidity also allows the project party to close the contract, and at the same time, the funding fee cannot be earned, and there is no momentum to push the price up.
Regardless of the situation, it is a signal to stop this round of market manipulation.
At the same time, I suggest Binance investigate the batch of sub-accounts that built positions at the bottom of MYXUSDT earlier; this should indeed be market manipulation.
