The comment I am showing you is a very common topic of debate in the trading world. My opinion is that the comment is partially correct, but it ignores the reality of many traders.
Here is my analysis:
Why the comment has a valid point:
* Volatility and manipulation: The cryptocurrency market is known for its high volatility and, at times, for being susceptible to manipulation (the famous "whale watching"). Unexpected movements and last-minute news can completely ignore technical patterns. In this sense, it is not a traditional stock market with the same stability.
* Lack of regulation: Unlike stock markets, which have strong regulation, the cryptocurrency market is less regulated. This allows for sharp movements that cannot always be predicted with technical analysis tools.
Why the comment is not entirely true:
* Technical analysis is a study of human behavior: Candlestick patterns, indicators like RSI or MACD, and Bollinger Bands are based on the psychology of traders: fear, greed, and herd behavior. Technical analysis is not a law of physics, but a tool to understand probabilities based on historical patterns.
* It works for millions of traders: Despite the volatility, millions of traders use technical analysis daily to make their decisions, and many of them do so successfully. The fact that a market is volatile does not mean it lacks patterns; rather, the patterns may be more extreme or shorter in duration.
In conclusion: Technical analysis is a probability tool. It works in cryptocurrencies in the same way as in any other market: it gives you an idea of what might happen, but it is not a guarantee. The smart trader combines technical analysis with an understanding of the fundamentals of the asset, market news, and, above all, good risk management. The comment oversimplifies a practice that is very effective if used correctly.
