🔍 Who is Arthur Hayes?
Former co-founder of the cryptocurrency trading platform BitMEX, known as one of the leading policymakers in the crypto scene (Wikipedia).
In March 2025, he was granted a presidential pardon by former President Donald Trump following his legal case regarding violations of the Bank Secrecy Act (Wikipedia).
🚨 What actually happened: Multi-million dollar liquidation and strong shift towards cash
In early August 2025, Arthur Hayes sold over $13 million of assets like ETH, ENA, and PEPE, converting most of his investments into USDC (stablecoin).
His portfolio now contains over 80% of assets in USDC, within a total balance exceeding $27.9 million (CoinDesk, Brave New Coin).
📉 Hayes' predictions: Is Trump’s hand on the trigger?
Hayes attributes his decisions and pessimistic stance to the following developments:
The strong tariff policy that the Trump administration began implementing in August, threatening multiple economies (CoinDesk).
Disappointing U.S. employment reports, such as the July data showing only 73,000 jobs created instead of the expected 110,000 (financemagnates.com).
Limited credit expansion in most major economies, hindering nominal GDP growth (financemagnates.com, benzinga.com, Brave New Coin).
Consequently, he stated via his account on X (formerly Twitter):
"There is no economy expanding credit sufficiently and rapidly enough to boost nominal GDP. Hence BTC may test $100,000, and ETH could return to $3,000" (financemagnates.com).
📊 What does this mean in real life?
His forecast represents a correction of about 18-19% from Bitcoin's peak price near $123,000 in July 2025. This is not a catastrophic collapse, but a moderate technical pullback (Reddit).
Other technical analyses indicate significant support levels at $104,000 (Fibonacci 38.2% ratio) and $100,000 (200-day moving average) and then down to $98,000 as an attractive buying area for institutions and traders (financemagnates.com).
🧭 Market position and potential strategies
Hayes focuses on the short to medium term and warns of real economic risks that could push the market toward further temporary declines (bitbo.io, benzinga.com).
Despite his expectation of a downturn, he remains optimistic about the long term:
He previously predicted a price rise to $250,000 by the end of 2025, and even $1 million by 2028, driven by Trump’s financial policies and global concerns over U.S. sovereign debt (finance.yahoo.com, The Defiant, benzinga.com).
📋 Quick fact summary
ElementDetailsSummaryArthur Hayes, BitMEX founderRecent tradesSale of ~$13 million of ETH, ENA, and PEPEConversion to cashApproximately 80% of the portfolio in USDCNegative outlookBTC around $100k, ETH around $3kReasonsTrump tariffs, weak U.S. employment, credit expansion disruptionsLong-term outlookBTC to $250k in 2025, and $1 million by 2028StrategyTemporarily reduce risk and wait to re-enter at attractive low levels
🧠 Summary and personal analysis
Hayes employs a liquidity hedging strategy, reflecting his stance through a massive conversion to USDC.
His forecast is not based on unfounded fear, but is grounded in critical macroeconomic indicators and trade tensions with China and the European Union.
He believes a drop towards $100,000 could be a buying opportunity — a moment of power renewal before a larger surge — despite his short-term concerns.
For most investors and speculators, the critical point is: do you enter now at higher prices with the risk of a correction? Or wait for $100k or less for a cheaper entry?
✅ In summary
Arthur Hayes raises the red flag for a temporary warning: The crypto market may see a correction down to $100,000 for Bitcoin, supported by widespread liquidation and a shift towards cash.
But as long as there is strong institutional support and buying signals at low levels, the case may pave the way for a new long-term rise.
The question is: Are you ready to wait at the support levels? Or do you prefer to be in now fearing missing out?
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