Yes, I expect the cut to be 0.25% as a basis. This is after the unemployment news, and currently, the dollar will be strong and on the rise until the date of the US Federal Reserve meeting ⛄🍬👀
Fouz-DZ-16
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🧵 Markets expect interest rate cuts… but not all at once!
1️⃣ Financial markets do not see the US Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates suddenly… but gradually. What do the futures contracts say? 👇
2️⃣ 📍 September 2025 80% of traders expect interest rates to remain in the range: 5.25% – 5.50%
📍 December 2025 Beginning to see the possibility of cuts: 5.00% – 4.75% (but without a clear majority)
3️⃣ 📍 March 2026 Markets strongly lean towards expecting a larger cut to: 4.25% – 4.00%
📍 September 2026 Very mixed expectations: Between 3.00% and 4.25% — ambiguity reigns supreme.
4️⃣ ✳️ Is this an "official expectation" from the Federal Reserve? No. Rather, it is a reflection of what traders price in based on economic data and monetary policy trends.
5️⃣ 🔍 Why do markets expect interest rate cuts? • Slowing inflation • A decline in the pace of economic growth
As new signals emerge, markets immediately reassess their positions.
6️⃣ 📆 Upcoming important events that could change everything:
🔸 Inflation data (CPI) – August 13 🔸 Jackson Hole Symposium – August 22-24
