⚠️ Major event: Unlocking tokens worth ~103 million dollars.
On August 5, about 171.85 million ENA (~2.7% of total supply) were unlocked, causing a sharp price increase of around 14% within 24 hours, as the price jumped from ~$0.55 to a local peak of ~$0.628.
📊 High trading and derivatives activity.
24-hour trading volume exceeded $1.1 billion, an increase of 28-35%.
Open interest in derivatives rose by ~17% to about $1.14 billion.
Long/Short ratio on Binance between 1.95 and 2.09, indicating strong buying pressure.
💹 Growth of the ecosystem and stability of USDe
USDe, the stablecoin backed by Ethena, saw its trading volume increase by ~75% over the past month, reaching a market value of approximately $9.3–9.5 billion, making it the third largest stablecoin after USDT and USDC.
Total value locked (TVL) in the protocol exceeded $9.45-$9.5 billion.
🚶 Performance of major whales
Arthur Hayes (former CEO of BitMEX) sold 7.76 million ENA (~$4.6 million), raising concerns about whale liquidation.
🔍 Current market fundamental analysis
Despite the large supply opening, the market anticipated selling pressure, but ENA maintained strong upward momentum, reflecting investor confidence in the protocol.
Executing a strong mix of buy and sell demand, but on-chain indicators show tokens leaving exchanges to private wallets (spot netflow negative), suggesting they are being held for the long term.
Technical indicators (RSI, Stochastic, Chaikin) are trending toward buy signals, with a possibility of testing new resistance levels above $0.628 up to $0.70.
📋 Quick summary
Factor Current situation and impact.
Token unlocks ~2.7% of the supply was unlocked, but it was surpassed by the price increase.
Trading activity Significant increase in volume and open interest.
Speculators' demand (Long) Purchase levels exceed sales on exchanges.
Total value locked (TVL) exceeded $9.5 billion, an indicator of protocol stability.
Technical analysis Positive signals toward levels of $0.68-$0.70.
Upcoming risks Additional market liquidity if major investors exit.
🧠 Analytical outlook
Confidence is clear today: despite a massive amount of tokens being opened, ENA has risen and contributed to active liquidity.
Protocol fundamentals are strong: rapid growth of USDe and rising TVL enhance the intrinsic value of the token.
Short-term risks are avoided: Continued buying reflects the market's ability to absorb new supply.
Next potential resistances: ~$0.628, then $0.68, and with continued momentum, $0.70+ could become a achievable target.
✅ What does this mean for investors?
If you are a short-term trader: there is likely more volatility in the near term, but with strong technical support at the current range.
If you are a long-term investor: performance shows clear expectations to stay above support areas if ETF funds or new partnerships emerge.
It is useful to monitor USDe movement, the actions of major whales, and technical performance over the next 7 days to assess stability and continuity.
