SOL is currently trading in the range of $162–$165, after a decline from the July peak of -25%), with a weekly drop of about -9%, while recording a monthly increase of nearly +16%.
🔍 Fundamental analysis
🧾 1. On-chain analysis and whale support
About 43% of SOL holders are experiencing unrealized losses, with significant accumulation around the range of $160–$170 which represents a strong on-chain support base.
Solana whales recorded significant withdrawals of tokens from exchanges to private wallets worth over $52 million, indicating intent for long-term holding and reducing available supply for sale.
🏦 2. Institutional adoption and potential Solana ETF funds
Requests for ETF funds on Solana from major institutions like VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, and Canary are awaiting approval from the SEC, which could open new institutional flows toward SOL.
Significant increase in futures activity, with open interest estimated at around $800 million on CME, reflecting growing institutional interest.
💹 3. Network activity and usage indicators
Despite price declines, monthly network revenues exceeded $87 million in July—outperforming Ethereum and Bitcoin for the tenth consecutive time.
However, the network is experiencing a slowdown in active address growth and TVL indicators in DeFi, temporarily reducing demand momentum for SOL.
⚠️ 4. Major risks
Despite improvements in decentralization (Nakamoto Coefficient reaching ~20), there are ongoing security concerns from smart contract developers regarding vulnerabilities in tools and phishing techniques in the Solana ecosystem.
The failure of the price to break through the resistance range at $180–$185 may signal renewed selling pressure towards support at $145 or lower if not supported by new positive momentum.
🧭 Short-term forecasts
The price is likely to stabilize at $162–$165 throughout most of August unless strong catalysts emerge, with opportunities for recovery towards $172–$175 if market conditions and demand improve.
📊 Quick summary
Side Current situation
Price support Strong at $160–$165, with accumulation levels on-chain
Institutions and adoption ETF requests ongoing; whales withdrawing and long-term accumulation
Network activity High revenues despite DeFi slowdown and growth in addresses
Risks Weak growth in altcoin usage, potential security issues
Price range Stable technical range, strong resistance at $180–$185
🧠 Analytical summary
Today, fundamental analysis shows that Solana is undergoing a price recalibration, forming strong support areas around ~$162, supported by whale accumulation and growing institutional momentum. However, declining DeFi activity and technical challenges threaten the continuation of positive momentum. A catalyst such as ETF approval or a significant increase in network application usage could create upside opportunities towards $175 or more in August; otherwise, prices may target deeper support levels.