Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde has sparked lively discussion with his recent thread on X, revealing a little-known but powerful market signal that can predict major Bitcoin price turning points about six months in advance. His research points to the price action of gold as this “overlooked asset class” that tends to pivot months before Bitcoin, offering a “sneak peek” at Bitcoin’s market cycles.
Key insights include:
Bitcoin often follows global liquidity changes with about a 12-week lag, but gold’s price action leads global liquidity by roughly 12 weeks, effectively giving gold a 24-week lead on Bitcoin’s price moves.
Villaverde’s back-testing shows this gold-Bitcoin relationship stretching back to the start of modern crypto markets, accurately flagging major lows such as December 2018 and major highs like November 2021.
An exception occurred during the Russia-Ukraine invasion when geopolitical chaos temporarily disrupted the usual correlation, but the historic pattern quickly reasserted itself afterward.
According to Villaverde, gold’s trendlines currently predict a major Bitcoin price high around late November 2025, aligning with his Crypto Timing Model.
He cautions that the signal is not deterministic—if gold rallies above its April 2025 high near $3,450, Bitcoin could continue climbing into 2026; if gold breaks down, it might warn that the crypto bull market peak is near or past.
The model captures investor psychology cycles between fear and greed by focusing on both price direction and the amplitude of turns.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $114,522, and the gold price action suggests careful watchfulness for the next few months as this key indicator matures.
In summary:
Juan Villaverde’s analysis connects gold’s price movements as a leading indicator for Bitcoin prices with a roughly six-month lag, offering a unique tool to anticipate market turning points. This supports a predicted Bitcoin market peak in late November 2025 but leaves room for adaptation depending on gold’s ongoing trajectory.
