Bitcoin's price recovered to surpass $114,000 after reaching lows near $112,000 over the weekend. Despite facing strong technical resistance, institutional investors are still buying actively. Nonetheless, the negative seasonal trend in August continues to exert short-term pressure, pushing decline expectations towards the $105,000 area.
August: Recurring concerns about Bitcoin
Data from 2017 shows that Bitcoin recorded an average loss of 11.4% in five of the last seven months of August. If this historical trend repeats, the price of Bitcoin could drop to $105,000, which is also the bottom of the ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart for Bitstamp. A breach of this support may disrupt long-term bullish expectations and trigger a deeper correction.
Bitcoin Price Chart | Source: TradingView
Conversely, if Bitcoin maintains its trend bottom and returns to the $115,000 level, the market may regain its upward momentum, with its next target at $125,000. Developments in the upcoming sessions will be crucial for the remainder of the third quarter.
The 'bull flag' structure has been recreated.
Despite the grim outlook for August, Bitcoin's price has returned to the 'rising flag' pattern - a signal that reinforces the recovery trend. According to Crypto Rover's chart, Bitcoin's price is trading around $114,500, stabilizing above $112,000, opening the door for the potential rise to $118,000.
BTC/USD One Day Chart | Source: X
Additionally, the TD Sequential indicator on the hourly chart issued a '9' buy signal, which typically follows a sharp correction, indicating the end of selling momentum. The signal formed just above the support level of $112,000, increasing the likelihood of a trend reversal in the near term.
However, the $115,000 level remains a major hurdle. According to analyst Captain Faiback, Bitcoin's price needs to close strongly above this level to establish momentum towards $118,000, and then to $125,000.
Source: Captain Faiback
In the event of a failed breakout, the price may continue to fluctuate below the overall resistance area.
Organizations continue to accumulate amid volatility
Amid market volatility, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet purchased an additional 463 Bitcoins (worth approximately $53.7 million) on August 4, at an average price of $115,895 per Bitcoin. This brought the company's total Bitcoin holdings to 17,595 units, placing Metaplanet among the top 7 global companies listed as Bitcoin holders, with an investment portfolio worth over $2 billion.
Successful retest of the breakout area at $112,000
According to IncomeSharks' analysis, the recent correction returned to test the breakout level at $112,000, and this support held. The chart shows a narrowing ascending channel, with support starting from the lowest point recorded in April, currently around $114,700.
As long as Bitcoin's price remains above this trend line, cumulative expectations remain positive. IncomeSharks predicts that the price could head towards $124,000 if the current trend continues. In the short term, expectations remain positive as long as the $112,000 level is not breached.
