I. News front: whales increasing short positions and market chain reactions.

"Insider brother" accurately targets the timeline

  1. On August 3 at 18:20: On-chain analyst Yu Jin first detected that @qwatio increased the value of its short position from below $100 million to $300 million, covering BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL, with an unrealized gain of $7 million. After the news was released by PANews and Jinse Finance, BTC briefly rebounded to $114,000 but fell back to $113,500 within an hour.

  2. On August 5 at 20:00: According to the latest report from Deep Tide TechFlow, @qwatio increased its short position to $132 million after the BTC drop, with its BTC liquidation price at $114,210 and ETH liquidation price at $3,822, nearing real-time prices of BTC at $114,400 and ETH at $3,700, forming a "knife-edge speculation" situation.

    The correlation between whales and market sentiment is diverging.

    Another whale, AguilaTrades, is also using a high-leverage rolling strategy, facing liquidation risk if the direction is wrong.

    Options market trading sentiment is split: some investors turn defensive due to losses from volatility, but the bulls still hold firm on the ETH $4,000 target, while derivative trading volume has plunged by 31.7%, reflecting insufficient confidence.

II. Technical front: critical points for long and short and price channels.

Bitcoin: $116,000 is the lifeline.

  1. Suppression signal: The 4-hour chart shows BTC is constrained by a downward trend line, with $116,200 gathering resistance from the 20/50/100-day moving averages; the super trend indicator has issued a bearish signal.

  2. Key support: $112,500 is the lower bound of the daily channel; if broken, it will fall to $110,000; if a strong breakthrough occurs at $116,200, it will hit the $118,000-$121,800 range.

    Ethereum: shrinking rebound hides risks.

  3. The 4-hour KDJ value reaches 96, and the MACD histogram is shortening, indicating weakened upward momentum. Resistance level at $3,699, support level at $3,349; if it breaks below $3,582, liquidation price may trigger sell-offs.

  4. Today, ETH has broken through $3,700, but trading volume has decreased, and the divergence between volume and price indicates a risk of correction.

III. Shenlong's long-short analysis: two paths and operational strategies

"Whales are the catfish of the market, but the technical structure is the fishing net"

Scenario 1: Bears dominate.

  1. Trigger conditions: BTC falls below $112,500 or ETH drops below $3,524.

  2. Driving factors:

    • Whales @qwatio's short positions are expanding in unrealized gains, triggering follow-up sell-offs.

    • The expiration of August options is approaching, increasing volatility in hedging.

  3. Target level:

    • BTC looks to $110,000-$108,400;

    • ETH looks to $3,349-$3,200

Scenario 2: Bulls reverse.

  1. Trigger conditions: BTC breaks above $116,200 with volume or ETH stabilizes above $3,800.

  2. Driving factors:

    • Trump's $3.7 trillion stablecoin plan, if supported by Congress, may stimulate buying;

    • Grayscale's IPO progress boosts institutional confidence.

  3. Target level:

    • BTC targets $116,000-$118,000;

    • ETH targets $3,838-$4,000.

IV. Practical strategy: dancing on the edge of a knife

Bitcoin operations

  1. Short position layout: open positions at $114,400-$114,200, stop loss at $115,000, target $112,500-$110,000.

  2. Long position speculation: chase long positions above $116,200, stop loss at $115,500, target $118,000-$121,800.

Ethereum operations

  1. Short on rallies: open positions at $3,680-$3,700, stop loss at $3,750, target $3,582-$3,349.

  2. Support reversal: go long near $3,350, stop loss at $3,300, target $3,699-$3,800.

Shenlong's warning: whale position liquidation price is close at hand; if breaking news occurs tonight, volatility may exceed 5%!

V. Shenlong's ultimate view: short-term bearish, mid-term bullish

Bearish logic:

  1. Whales are aggressively increasing short positions, with the $114,000-$114,500 range facing multiple obstacles, and shrinking volume exposing the bulls' fatigue;

  2. August is a traditional liquidity off-season, with open interest in derivatives decreasing by 0.5%, and funds are in a wait-and-see mode.

Bullish hints:

  1. Trump's policies are favorable, and catalysts like institutional IPOs in mid to late August may reverse sentiment;

  2. Bitcoin's long-term channel remains unbroken, with the support at $112,000 tested three times, and $100,000 as a solid bottom.

Shenlong's conclusion:

"Keep an eye on $114,210 tonight! If BTC breaks down with volume, the bears will wipe out the bulls; if the whales face liquidation, a rebound will be imminent. I lean towards short-term bearishness, but I will set up long positions before August 15, waiting for favorable policies."

Opportunities and risks coexist in the crypto circle; stay vigilant, and timing is key. I have also discovered a short-term surging project with huge doubling potential! Want to follow along? Click on my profile picture and pay attention to me for free sharing! Follow Shenlong's trend.

#BTC走势分析 #ETH走势分析